ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 9, LORD FLINTSHIRE

FIRST RACE

COINAGE is the lone colt with experience in this short field of 2yo maidens and he lacked the early speed of some of his rivals in that debut run last month, before racing on to the end to finish a gaining 3rd; son of Tapit from Breeders’ Cup FM Sprint winner Bar of Gold figures tough with natural improvement for a trainer who brings them along through racing. JUGGLER a sone of new sire Lord Nelson, who became a multiple Grade 1-winning sprinter as an older horse; dam Alpha Kitten was a debut winner as a 2yo before winning the Grade 2 Santa Ynez on synthetic; threw in a bullet breeze from the gate last week. SURPRISE BOSS is a half to several minor winners from her Grade 3-winner dam; sire just 2 for 28 with juvenile first time starters so far; breaks from the rail with a hot rider taking the call.

SECOND RACE

FLASHING RED tried to stretch it out in his return to NY last time and wound up making a solid early pace in a race that was won by import Virginia Joy, who returned to finish 4th in a Grade 2 with a 97 Beyer; drops back down in class with tactical speed. EQUAL MEASURE stepped up off the Miller claim last time and wasn’t a threat behind a pair of Chad Brown-trained runners going a mile; shows two wins and a 2nd from her last three starts vs. claiming rivals and is capable of running from anywhere. VIP NATION easily got loose on the lead and wired $25k claimers when stretched back out last time; consistent mare is a nice fit at this level and her early speed always makes her dangerous around here.

THIRD RACE

WAR CANOE has faced much tougher to no avail in her two starts since the claim; has won (and been claimed from) each of her last three starts vs. claiming rivals, and has placed in several NY-bred stakes in between; clearly the horse to beat as she drops back down, assuming you think she can still run. GIACOSA and KREESIE exit the same race, where they were both compromised by the slow pace being controlled by Pecatonica. GIACOSA was further away early while making her first start off the layoff, and she might be slightly better suited by this distance.

FOURTH RACE

Save a series of short-priced losses by Advance Notice, BENINTENDI has earned figures for all six of his career starts that are faster than anything his rivals have managed to run in 40 combined starts; dropping off the layoff after settling for 2nd in four of his last five; has speed for a trainer who is 26% with a $2.53 ROI first time for a tag. FULL COURT PRESS landed in a pair of tough spots to begin his career in Florida, then dropped and was clearly best breaking his maiden while contesting a solid pace going a mile; drops back down second off the claim. NUTSIE was a debut winner at Saratoga last summer then was quickly thrown into a Grade 1 to no avail; returns from the layoff to make his 3yo debut with Lasix on and gets significant class relief for this.

FIFTH RACE

POTANTICO dropped to this level making his NY debut last time and bumped into sharp backclasser Danebury, who wired that field with an 89 Beyer, and came right back to run well again vs. tougher with a 92; right back for the same tag off the claim for Morley - past three years, first after claimed by, route: 5 for 23, 22%, $6.93 ROI. EASY SHOT has not factored in his first three starts of 2021 while facing the likes of Jalen Journey (just won here with a 93 Beyer), recent Grade 2 Brooklyn winner Lone Rock, and 13-time winner Pioneer Spirit; taking significant class relief for a new trainer with the back class to be tough. SUPREME AURA has been in good form since being taken by Rudy for $16k and came up with a career-best effort to score for $40k last month; factors right back if holding his form and projects to have some pace in front of him here.

SIXTH RACE

SINGLE SOUL ran better than it looks on debut when breaking a bit slowly and then racing wide from her outside draw; improved in her second start when bumping into the talented Technical Analysis; returns with Lasix on and is bred to stretch out for a trainer who brings them back ready: 3yo, 180+ day layoff, turf, route: 12 for his last 37, 32%, $4.68 ROI. PALAMOS is second off the bench stretching out after getting wired in her return; half to long-winded mare Mrs. Sippy can improve as she takes on more distance for the first time. FLAMING ROUGE made her stateside debut in the same race as PALAMOS last month and rallied for 2nd behind that front-running winner; was kept going longer in France last year and might really appreciate this stretch out.

SEVENTH RACE

MAIDEN BEAUTY lacks the upside of a couple of her rivals in this spot but she is consistent and has held her form since being claimed by these connections last October, with a pair of wins over a mile in her two most recent starts over fast dirt; cutting back a furlong should pose no problem with her tactical speed and she gets a positive rider change for this. ROSSA VELOCE looked good winning her career debut last summer while contesting the pace, then ran in three straight stakes to no avail; won again when returned to her available condition, though she was loose on a gold rail that day; drops again and will have Lasix on for the first time off the layoff. WASP switching from turf to dirt and cutting back a furlong after going evenly in a slow-paced turf race last month; both wins to date have come over wet tracks but she ran fine over a fast track in her debut.

EIGHTH RACE

SO DARN HOT is switching back to turf for just the second time in her career after backing up in her final two starts of 2020, both vs. better on the main track; clearly ran well a couple of times on dirt but thought her lone turf start was an underrated effort finding some room inside in the stretch and finishing gamely; willing to give her another chance on this surface at a price as she returns for Weaver (past year, 180+ day layoff: 5 for 18, 28%, $2.50 ROI; 3 for 10 on turf in that sample, $3.02). STOLEN HOLIDAY still lightly-raced and she had shown some potential since making a winning debut in Florida last year; was only okay off the layoff last time after getting to the early lead and then taking some pressure, and she can benefit for having that run behind her. ICE PRINCESS another wildcard switching surfaces in this spot after winning a stake and placing in a couple of others on the main track; was entered for turf first time out and never made it back after getting rained off and blowing that field away; half-sister to six-time turf winner American Ninja is out of a dam who was a winner going long on both turf and synthetic.

NINTH RACE

LORD FLINTSHIRE got unlucky in his final start as a 2yo when checking sharply early, and then being forced to rally up the rail behind the eventual winner getting the jump in the stretch; took a step forward in his first start for this trainer last time when carrying a long run and then racing on gamely to the end behind an impressive winner. TOUGH WORKOUT was rained off to a sloppy main track in his debut last month and wound up contesting a solid pace before tiring in the stretch; right back at the same level with some turf in his pedigree. STRAIGHT SKINNY raced greenly while getting outrun early in his seven-furlong debut, but was racing on well in the late stages; puts blinkers on making his second start for a trainer who is quietly having a nice meet.