ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 3, FLIP THE COIN JAN

FIRST RACE

JAGGED ARROW showed his usual zip last out then simply tired. We bet he wasn’t acclimated to his new surroundings. Second time here and second time with new barn should make all the difference. Main pace foe is drawn inside so expect this mare to shadow the rail runner all with Negron up who is a very good gate jock. FABLES LOVE AFFAIR ran OK last out and did so at 13-1 but you can see that, right? This filly has always loved this dirt at 5-2-2-0. She also enjoys shortened sprints at 6-2-2-0. DANCE broke 10th of 11 in her return try in the mud and simply didn’t like it. She gets in light and has hit the board in a shortened sprint in 8 of 14 starts. A good shot to be double digits. CHEVERIE exits a key race where 2 of 5 returned to win with figs of 44 and 53.

SECOND RACE

RING LEADER ran well off the layoff and got good play in the process when sent off at 2-1. She is back in other words. This filly was facing graded foes at Oaklawn as a 3YO. She owns a recent work and figures a lone F trip. This barn is 15% second off the layoff. The horse that beat this filly is running in today’s seventh race. LADY ORCHID is feeling great and now goes third off the layoff. Will Rogers lines might actually help the price. Obviously she loves two turns. Yet to run on this dirt is the X factor. BEACH GETAWAY doesn’t have the figs of some of these but is proven on this dirt at 2-1-1-0. Recent works are sharp and this mare gets to save all the early ground.

THIRD RACE

FLIP THE COIN JAN returned in fine fashion and did so at a juicy 7-1. Even though this horse was running in claimers in SoCal his new barn found a spot where he couldn’t be claimed. They do so again today. What we really like is the move to the turf something this horse has always loved. Working out a good trip could be tricky though as the inside runners have speed. Maybe this guy simply does what he just did in his return try .... stalk and win. MITHQAAL does like to win and can fire fresh. Works are sharp including that recent bullet drill.

This guy might be the speed of the speed. KINETIC SWAGGER just won on this sod and now steps up in class for Mac Robertson. We like that this gelding has worked twice between starts. SHAKES CREEK exits a key race where 3 of 8 returned to win with figs of 76, 82, and 75.

FOURTH RACE

LAST MARTINI did little in his debut but he did break dead last. Plus, two turns on the turf is as tough a spot as there is for said debut. Dam went 2-0-2-0 routing while lone sib is a full sister that is 3-1-1-0 when going two turns (24K). There is no panicky drop for this horse and we like that connections want a route of ground once again. RUBY’S RED DEVIL did beat over half the field home in his debut and 6 1/2 furlongs is no picnic for a first start. Both sibs beat winners. Lone sib to try routing is a multiple winner that won 3 of 5 and banked 42K in the process. DEVOTED TO YOU has speed and the rail all on the stretch-out. This barn is 25% going sprint to route.

FIFTH RACE

LA ROSA DRIVE is by a 10% debut turf sire. Her dam went 1-0-0-0 on the green. Lone grass sib is 11-1-2-2 and earned 23K. This filly was stuck between runners last out and some horses hate that. She draws better and should like the grass all for Diodoro. INDAWIN is bred to like the green. New barn removes the blinkers and finds this filly another grass race but one that is a full furlong shorter. Works for us. NORTH OF EDEN exits a key race where 3 of 8 returned to win with figs of 65, 51, and 54. This mare has won on this sod before and gets good race flow today.

SIXTH RACE

RASMUS is a state-bred trying open but still finds a good spot. Team Broberg is 19% off the claim. This gelding is a lightly raced 4YO that just ran a Beyer top. Why can’t he continue to improve? We like Eikleberry up and this horse draws outside main pace foes. AZUSA ST. did break his maiden here last summer. He has tactical speed and the rail which should mean an off the pace trip. If the 2 and 3 duel then maybe, just maybe, this guy trips out best. BLAME BISHOP just ran better and did so with a weight break. That was a Beyer top. He gets in light again. If the umbrellas come out then the playing field tilts in his favor.

SEVENTH RACE

ARIZONA SUN is by a 10% debut turf sire. Her dam went 2-1-0-0 on the green and earned 15K (won debut). One of two sibs won on the grass with the other hitting the board. This filly has speed but can stalk all for Diodoro. HENRYS DEAL is by a 3% debut turf sire. Her dam went 3-0-0-1 on the weeds for 6K. Lone turf sib is 9-1-2-1 and earned 15K. Hard trying filly goes second time for new barn. We would like her more if this comes off. LADY GOLDSTART ran OK in her only turf race when facing stakes foes at Kentucky Downs. Turf breeding isn’t the best for this filly but maybe that won’t matter going only five panels. Second time Lasix is a plus and we know that this filly likes it here. HARKING is by a 14% debut turf sire. Her dam finished third in her only turf start ($1,485). Lone sib never tried the weeds.

EIGHTH RACE

MUSKYMAN was off slow in his return try but that was going short whereas he is better around two turns just look at those turf starts before the layoff. Class drop should do the trick. HISMUDDAWASAMUDDA ran a little better previously and now goes third off the layoff. He gets in light and might like two turns. His dam went 6-1-2-0 when routing and earned 9K. This barn is 18% when going sprint, sprint, route. CAUSEIMCHOCOLATE just didn’t fire off the layoff but didn’t get much play and caught a sloppy Joe track. We rather like the move to two turns. Class drop makes sense.