ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 4, L’INDISCRET

FIRST RACE

BETTER WITH AGE failed to break sharply and never made an impact behind a front-running winner when back to turf last month vs. better; has better races than that to get to and has been competitive when dropped in class in the past; needs a trip from the outside but can contend at a price with her good race. SENGEKONTACKET back to NY after breaking her maiden in the first of two starts in Florida over the winter; tactical filly is logical while projecting for a good trip from the rail. GIGGLE FACTORY landed a perfect trip en route to breaking her maiden over the Widener course last October, and she improved again when coming away second-best in her first attempt in this condition; returns from the layoff at the right level while reuniting with Saez.

SECOND RACE

ROYAL REALM raced greenly while away from a strong rail throughout his sprint debut earlier in the year, then improved noticeably with experience and some added distance when rallying up the rail and coming up just short in his next start; improved again when breaking his maiden last time and appears to have some potential for Jerkens - maiden winner last, routes: 8 for his last 33, 24%, $4.54 ROI. ARHAM looked good while winning at first asking with a 91 Beyer, and he appeared to have an excuse when getting away last and being forced to chase in his next start; matched that 91 Beyer while getting up for 2nd without an apparent excuse going a mile two back, and not sure that switching to turf last time was a great sign for him; has some questions to answer but expect him to run better back on dirt. YANKEE DIVISION has earned the top three figures of his career in his last three starts; took advantage of a loose lead on a gold rail to earn that 99 in February, but he ran well on a fast pace in his next start while going longer; figures to come out running.

THIRD RACE

FLOWER POINT a late-running turf sprinter cutting back a bit for this after failing to land a blow on her first-ever main track start last time; her two wins to date have come over 5 and 5.5 furlongs, but she finishes strongly in her races and thing this distance over the Widener might enhance her kick. SARATOGA AFFAIR switched to turf last time going a mile and gamely prevailed after being strongly rated in the early stages, before gamely holding off her favored stablemate to the wire; repeat of that 85 Beyer is going to play in this spot. COST BENEFIT finished behind MALIBU MISCHIEF and KANSAS KIS while first off the layoff last time, but she never had a fair chance in that spot while rated back to last behind a slow pace; can do better and should have no problem with the distance.

FOURTH RACE

L’INDISCRET ran well several times without winning at the MSW level last year; dropped off the layoff and scored easily from last to first most recently and is logically spotted off the claim by Handal - past five years, first after claimed by: 15 for 82, 18%, $2.81 ROI. HOHOHOHO wired maidens first time out when able to get loose, and ran better in her next turf start when forced on the pace and settling for 2nd behind Killer Dress, who then shipped up here to win at this level; unlucky DQ last time after holding her position on a rival trying to force her way through inside. OCEAN AIR faced some tougher competition in her first three starts while racing competitively, then dropped and gamely prevailed in her first start for a tag; was only second-best at this level last time but she didn’t have much chance there while rated away from a loose winner.

FIFTH RACE

COMBINATION got on a big run shortly after being dropped in class at the start of last year, winning 8 of 10 starts sprinting on dirt for several different trainers; makes his NY debut for Atras after settling for 2nd in his first two starts this year. HOORAY FOR HARVEY gets the slop excuse for that last one off the layoff, which brought his overall wet track record to 0-8 with zero seconds; thought he ran well when third over a mile three starts back and can give him another chance back on fast dirt. RUNAWAY LUTE is capable of a race that would make things hard on the top one and he has the early speed to be a forward factor from the start here as he cuts in half for his second start off the claim. STROLLING did not run close to his best race while making his NY debut for Miller last time; closing sprinter goes off the claim for a dangerous trainer and has some back races that would make him tough in this spot.

SIXTH RACE

SHOW ME THE HONEY managed to save some ground when debuting over this course going six furlongs last October, but she was bumped while in tight at the top of the stretch before forcing her way clear, and then put in a strong finish to close that race down; had no chance in the pace-dominated Stewart Manor in her only other start; has to get seven off the bench but has upside while back in with state-breds and may not even have to improve all that much. Any improvement by the top one may prove to be moot if AVA’S GRACE can transfer her dirt form over to turf in this spot; multiple grade stakes-placed filly is taking significant class relief for this while trying turf for the first time, though there isn’t a ton of pedigree to back her up. PROPER GRAMMAR debuted for a $40k tag and only earned a 60 Beyer in victory, but she did some good things there while holding her position while briefly trapped behind horses in the stretch, before ultimately pushing her way clear and winning easily.

SEVENTH RACE

CLEAR VISION likely wasn’t served well by stretching all the way out vs. stakes rivals two and three starts back, and he never had a chance in that last one when outrun in a pace-dominated race at Gulfstream; lack of early speed could be an issue but he is underrated and looks like a nice fit as he drops for the first time. ATTENTIVE came through with a game win when back to turf two back and finding room in time; ran well again last time behind a front-running winner while up in class. NOBLE THOUGHT posted two narrow wins and another pair of close 2nds in his four starts vs. claiming rivals after being dropped in class last October; got wired when failing to make a late impact behind the more tactical ATTENTIVE last time.

EIGHTH RACE

Perhaps getting loose on the lead made all the difference last time, but RISK PROFILE appeared to take a significant step forward in that maiden win while cutting the corner to get away and then blowing that field out impressively with a strong finish; 88 Beyer he earned first off the claim suggests he can be tough right back and see no reason why the distance would work against him. INDIAN COUNSELOR was bumped to the back after failing to break sharply last time, and he could never work his way into contention thereafter in a race that wasn’t coming back for him; has found improved speed since arriving in NY and should be in contention from the start this time with Irad taking over. TOP GUN TOMMY only earned a 48 Beyer while prevailing over maidens in hos second start - though he overcame early traffic to win that race - and he improved to win right back in his next start; returns on the nd cut back after proving to be no match for Known Agenda when last seen.

NINTH RACE

OCALA DREAM ran better than it looks in his turf debut at Saratoga last summer when going greenly and gaining late ground for 3rd; took another step forward last time when sitting a much handier trip and coming with a strong finish to break through with a solid figure; still improving and should be suited by this slight turnback. STEP DANCER the horse to beat with a stakes win and a Grade 2-placing showing from his 2yo campaign; faced older horses when returned to NY-bred competition last time, but he has no real excuse there after coming wide to take dead aim and then being denied late. DREAMER’S DISEASE ran an underrated race on a fast pace at the Breeders’ Cup last year, that coming after a dominant front-running allowance win on dirt; getting class relief for this after facing a strong field over that sloppy track last time; broke his maiden on this surface while loose on the lead last summer.

TENTH RACE

OB LA DI got unlucky two back when contesting a fast pace and just getting nailed by a last to first winner on the wire; giving her the chance to rebound after failing to fire in the slop last time. PALS SARATOGA GAL raced wide and finished evenly in her debut back in February, then went back to the sidelines for three months; was bumped off stride at the start when returned last month, and she was never really asked for much run thereafter while staying on the outside; puts races together and adds Lasix for the first time here. MARIA’S GIFT was contesting that quick pace with OB LA DI last time when cut back in distance, and she was still around at the end while settling for 3rd; draws outside again with some speed.