ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 9, OUR TROUBADOUR

FIRST RACE

MISS INTERPRET caught a wet track for her debut at Monmouth but was more unfortunate to land in a race that was also the debut for Mainstay, a half-sister to last year’s 2yo filly champ Vequist who score impressively in that spot; was outpaced early in that debut but can put the experience to use for a trainer who no longer seems to emphasize first-out success. POPULAR VOTE a half-sister to Grade 1 winning sprinter Hog Creek Hustle and Grade 3-winning sprinter Majestic Dunhill but the top stallion Constitution; brought $725k as a yearling and shows up with a couple of bullet breezes showing, INTERSTATEDAYDREAM a filly from the first crop of Classic Empire from a dam who is a sister to Grade 2 and 3-winner and millionaire Uncaptured; looked green breezing 10.1 in April prior to bringing $175k and she shows some quick works for Cox leading into this.

SECOND RACE

JUMPSTER has sprinted twice so far without success though he landed in fast-paced races both times; chased to no avail first time out, and he was racing on late last time without impact; his new trainer is underrated off the claim and this gelding might be a little better than he looks in a wide-open race. MULTIPLE EXPANSION is not the kind of horse to take a short price on but he may have simply landed in the right kind of spot here as he drops and switched from turf to dirt; got bet in his debut for top connections but didn’t have all that much to offer late while looking green in a race won by his stablemate; there is a lot of turf in this pedigree, though his dam is a sister to a stakes winner routing on dirt. TICKET TO ANTIGUA was bumped at the start of his debut in April, after which he chased briefly and then gave way; drops for his return while adding Lasix and switches to an underrated trainer.

THIRD RACE

GOOD CREDENCE caught a wet track for her return in the Critical Eye and she didn’t run poorly at all while setting for second to the streaking Bank Sting (that was her fourth straight win); showed plenty of potential last year while winning twice and improving her figures right along, a pattern that continued in that Critical Eye. SO DARN HOT returned from the layoff on turf and rallied mildly from last in a race that was taken wire-to-wire; lone win to date came the last time she switched from turf to dirt, also over this track. MALIBU CURL improved noticeably when breaking her maiden in her second career start as a 2yo last summer repeats that pattern after proving to be no match for stakes-bound Always Carina last month, dangerous at what might be a square price.

FOURTH RACE

TIME TO TESTIFY was done in by a fast pace vs. better two starts back, and he ran a winning race when cut back last time and making a long. early move into a fast pace, only to fall to a pair if closers late; one more chance. FRONT MAN has the form to be hard on a field like this one and he has run pretty well in both NY starts since being claimed; has to cut back but tough if he can handle it for a barn that is struggling right now. CLAMOR was bumped and steadied at the start before rallying into that good pace and finishing just behind TIME TO TESTIFY two back; didn’t have quite the same setup last time when gamely 3rd; tries again.

FIFTH RACE

LEMON DROP ROAD got caught in a tough spot behind horses when cut back to sprint in April and wound up finishing 2nd in an effort that was better than it looks; switched back to dirt last time only to land in a MSW won by the upwardly-mobile Mahaamel (99 Beyer); blinkers on and perfectly drawn. REPO ROCKS has run the three fastest races of his life in his last three starts and has nothing to show for it; also exits that Mahaamel race and he switches to Irad for this. PRIMARY COLORS a well-connected firster by American Pharoah (wins with 10% of his first-time starters) from a dam who was a multiple stakes winner on synthetic, but also a winner and Grade 3-placed on dirt; appears to be training forwardly.

SIXTH RACE

WINDS OF CAPRI ran pretty well first time out and has had some circumstances work against her since - eliminated by a spill in her second start, wet tracks since including a route attempt where she wound up very wide two back; dam is a sister to the multiple Group 1 winner Raven’s Pass and, while she only went 1 for 4 on turf in her career, she broke her maiden the first time she tried this surface and then earned Beyers of 90-87-84 in her final three starts, all on the grass. EMPRESS OF WAR was a big price in her debut after getting rained off but she showed some potential in that spot while racing up with speed and then staying gamely despite apparent greenness in the stretch; gets turf this time and moves outside. KREESA LA WROTE failed to stretch out effectively here two weeks ago; ran well while only second-best to impressive debut winner Runaway Rumour (returned to win again) sprinting two back in an improved effort.

SEVENTH RACE

SHOTSKI has been beaten double-digit lengths in three of his four starts since returning from the extended layoff, not without some mitigating circumstances; was caught dueling a fast pace in a race that went to closers two back, and he tried a long, wide run after failing to break sharply last time, only to throw it in late; one more chance as he moves outside. STRIKING SPEED earned a career-best 90 Beyer when last seen in December vs. allowance rivals; switches to the hot Atras barn for his return and has speed from the inside. O’TROUBLE and FAST BREAK squared off in a similar spot last month and finished close together at the end after bumping off each other in the stretch; O’TROUBLE dropping back down after trying a tougher spot here two weeks ago.

EIGHTH RACE

LINE DANCING to her available condition for the first time since winning her debut last August, and she has run better than it looks in a couple of those stakes tries since then; Lasix on and getting a positive rider change for this after being ridden very conservatively in her three starts since the layoff. EARTH STRIKE also looking for her first win since scoring on debut last August; ran well in her first three starts after arriving stateside and she lost her rider after clipping heels last time. THIRD DRAFT got the better of a rival who has developed a habit of settling when breaking her maiden most recently, but she keeps improving for a trainer who brings them along properly and can get any kind of trip in a race.

NINTH RACE

OUR TROUBADOUR ran well for 3rd last time when dropped back down in a pace-dominated race, and that distance might be a bit too far for him, as well; back to six and in better form than it may appear. QIAN B C landed in a pretty tough spot off the short layoff in April when back on turf; drops back down after racing competitively vs. better over the past two campaigns on this surface. AHEAD OF PLAN second off the layoff and dropping after failing to land a blow as the favorite last month; went two for three sprinting on turf last year while earning figures that would make him tough in this spot.