Don’t mind regression from big-fig juveniles

It sure was a relief when the country’s fastest 2-year-old romped last weekend at Santa Anita. It’s nice when you don’t have to sweat it out at odds of 2-5.

Of course, Big City Lights was expected to win the Fasig-Tipton Futurity. After all, his debut Beyer Speed Figure – a gawdy

93 – was the highest in more than a decade by a juvenile at

4 1/2 furlongs.

But a little-known fact: Big

City Lights was almost certain to earn a lower fig in the FasigTipton Futurity than his maiden debut. When a 2-yearold runs that fast (51.63 seconds) and earns a number that high

(93), they almost always go backward next out.

Backward means earn a lower figure, which Big City Lights did. Stretching out to five furlongs, he regressed all the way to 85. Some drop, right? It’s the third-highest Beyer by a juvenile this year, and visually impressive. He won by more than seven, with no urging.

Big City Lights is special, and by comparison already better than the three other juveniles since 2010 who earned a 90-plus Beyer at 4 1/2 furlongs.

At Laurel in 2010, Twelve Pack Shelly earned a 95, then regressed 26 points losing next out at odds-on. At Gulfstream Park in 2013, Lunarwarfare earned a 92 and fell 15 points in a next-out loss. And at Churchill Downs in 2013, Bahnah earned 91 and then dropped 19 points while dead-heating for a Grade 3 win.

Do they all go backward, or were Twelve Pack Shelly, Lunarwarfare, Bahnah, and Big City Lights mere aberrations? In fact, their regression is typical. It is expected.

Over the past decade, 30 of 33 juveniles that earned a Beyer of 80 or higher at 4 1/2 furlongs earned a lower figure next time out. So yes, they do go backward. Yet interestingly, they are not necessarily worth betting against.

Despite the overall speed-figure decline, 13 of the 33 won their next start. That’s a 39 percent win rate, albeit flat-bet loss ($1.53 return per $2 win bet).

As the racing season moves toward July, the number of juvenile races at 4 1/2 furlongs will diminish while the number of five-furlong juvenile races increases.

That’s good. A purist will contend the farther they run, the more authentic the races become. Five-furlong winners seem “more genuine” than winners at the abbreviated springtime distance of 4 1/2 furlongs.

Either way, summer horseplayers eventually face the same dilemma at five furlongs – interpreting a high-figure juvenile winner. Accept it at face value? Anticipate a decline?

Sensible handicapping often requires coping with apparent contradictions, including highfigure juvenile winners at five furlongs.

Over the past decade, no fewer than 78 juveniles earned Beyers of 80 or higher at five furlongs. That’s a big fig for an early-season juvenile, and next time out most started as the favorite (45 favored, 30 not favored, three never ran again).

The wagering bias toward high figures is not a surprise. Speed figures influence betting more than any factor. It’s practically written in stone – high figures correspond to low odds. Yet in analyzing next-out performances of high-figure juveniles (80 Beyer or higher, five furlongs) over the past decade a curious pattern emerged.

Most five-furlong high-figure juveniles regressed next out – nearly 80 percent earned a lower figure, only slightly more than 20 percent earned the same figure or higher (75 ran back: 59 lower figure, 16 same or higher).

The surprise is that despite a likelihood of next-start regression, the win rate was a stellar 40 percent (75 ran again after earning an 80 Beyer or higher: 30 won, 45 lost.) Equally surprising, the overall ROI was $1.97. Almost break-even.

The bottom line? Juveniles that earn 80 or higher Beyers at the shortest distances (4 1/2 to five furlongs) tend to earn lower figures in their next start. Yet they win more than their share – 39 percent combining both distances, no handicapping required.

As for the early-season high-figure juveniles, there currently are four. Big City Lights, a colt, is the goods in California. The filly Happy Soul earned an 81 winning a maiden race in May at Belmont Park and the same figure winning the 5 1/2-furlong Astoria Stakes in a landslide on June 3.

Wicked Halo, 81-Beyer debut winner at Lone Star, was scheduled to run Saturday in the Debutante Stakes at Churchill Downs. Little Drama earned an 86 winning her debut on May 16 at Belmont; her last recorded workout was May 24.

Summer is just getting started, juveniles are just now sorting themselves. And while few sensible horseplayers bet blind on a big fig, this is certain – a high number earned by a fast 2-year-old commands respect, even if there is doubt the number will be repeated.