The ‘other’ Casse has speed to upset

Breeders’ Cup looms, but in the nearer term there’s plenty of stakes racing coast to coast this fourth Saturday in October. Good-sized fields abound, too, with a relatively dry national forecast. Let’s get to it.

Raven Run

A baker’s dozen run in this late-season stakes for 3-year-old fillies going seven furlongs on dirt, but I don’t think contention runs all that deep. If you liked the Prioress there are more directions to go, but I didn’t care for that race. Cilla, the winner, is a solid racehorse but from where I sit not a truly established Grade 2 animal. Souper Sensational likely prefers this sevenfurlong trip to the Prioress’s six furlongs, but even considering that she should have run better last time, and I wonder if, after a long season, she’s gone a little over the top.

The Bill Mott-trained pair of Obligatory and Caramel Swirl are 3-1 and 7-2 on the morning line. I see both fillies as win candidates, though Obligatory is the more accomplished. She ran bravely stretching out to two turns in the Cotillion, holding clear all but victorious Clairiere. Obligatory slots more naturally into longer one-turn races like this, but post 13 does her no favors and I don’t see her offering any value.

Caramel Swirl’s positional pace can get her a favorable forward trip, she won nicely at Keeneland in the spring, and seven furlongs is her game. Chalk up a last-start fourth-place finish in the Grade 3 Charles Town Oaks to the small oval there. Caramel Swirl had the rail, didn’t make the front, and didn’t run her race over the bullring.

Mark Casse trains Souper Sensational and has a second, longer-priced entrant in Miss Speedy, who I’ll take to win the Raven Run.

Miss Speedy’s chances hinge on a surface switch, as she has started only on the Tapeta surface at Woodbine, but she possesses the key characteristic of a dirt horse – early speed. She didn’t show it in her debut, which she somehow managed to win anyway, but showed too much of it in her third start and second route race on Aug. 28, when she essentially ran off and stopped. Casse cut her back to seven furlongs for the Duchess Stakes last out and she got a solid win over Aug Lutes, who returned to win the $100,000 Glen Cove at Belmont with a 92 Beyer Speed Figure. One concern with synthetic and turf horses moving to dirt is how they will handle kickback, but with an outside draw and plenty of pace, that won’t be a concern for Miss Speedy.

Hill Prince

Public Sector has won three out of his last four, captured two straight graded turf stakes at Saratoga, and figures to be favored in the Hill Prince. I don’t have a strong feeling for this colt’s quality but suspect he is going to be overbet because bettors so value wins, and because he appears to be Chad Brown’s “A” team among his three entrants here. Public Sector has pulled favorable recent trips and never has tried this ninefurlong distance, and in a huge field, I think he’s worth playing against.

There are two very legitimate pace horses entered and a third who should show speed, and by rights the tempo should be honest at worst and fast at best. (We all know how this story often ends in North American racing – an unexpected slow pace.) If the field spreads adequately, Soldier Rising could work out a decent trip from a wide draw, but he’ll also take plenty of betting.

I’ll see if we can get the Brown-trained Sifting Sands into the winner’s circle.

Sifting Sands was favored last summer at Saratoga making his career debut, but for whatever reason proved slow to come around. Back this summer from a freshening, he got the hang of things. Sifting Sands, who definitely has the pedigree to excel at longer trips like this, finished off his last two starts with a purpose and is ready for this class hike.

Maryland Million Nursery

In September 2017, trainer Jeff Runco shipped a Charles Town 2-year-old maiden winner to Laurel, where he won an allowance race at 10-1. Lewisfield is the horse’s name, and he’s gone on to win multiple stakes and more than $500,000.

His 2-year-old full brother, Coastal Mission, barely got out of a gallop at Charles Town winning his career debut last month, and now shows up in this restricted $100,000 stakes race. He’ll get my money at anything close to the listed odds of 8-1.