FIFTH RACE

CAVEAT EMPTOR has been a work in progress while showing talent from the start before breaking though in a big way last out in the KD MSW. Rated and finished very nicely and since has logged four drills at Fair Hill. He has four solid runs backing up the recent maiden score, which will help with this move into N1X allowance competition, though he also benefits from landing in a race that looks modest for the level. Love the tactical speed he possesses and it should get him a favorable pressing / stalking trip. HOT STOVE LEAGUE ran into talented Fulsome in his lone turf-route start and likely was using that KD sprint comeback run as a prep for something longer - namely this. Suspect he’ll be ignored in the wagering. WAR MACHINE shipped for his last two starts and ran well each time, though the blanket finish last out at DMR suggest race of moderate strength. Capable and might lead, but the 7-2 morning-line price lacks appeal.

SIXTH RACE

BEAU LUMINARIE basically never runs a bad race, as evidenced by 14 finishes of third or better from 16 starts, but he’s also has managed only two wins. Ironically, one of those came over synthetic at Turfway, which he seems to like less than dirt or turf, but I think he breaks through today. Dropped from stakes to allowance last time but didn’t quite see out the 10 furlongs and ran into a very strong performance from Colonelsdarktemper there. Beaten less than a length by stronger rival than these this past April in lone KEE start and has logged three local works for this since his last race. MYSTIC NIGHT is a year younger than BL and has raced 10 fewer times, so in theory he’s the one with more upside. Also, I imagine their prices will be reversed from the morning line, with BL favored and MN second choice. MN also races for the second time following a layoff of several months, yet I still think Beau Luminaire will prove the slightly stronger horse on the day. BOURBON CALLING won over the Charles Town bullring in 2020 but was lost out there in his CT Run this past summer. Cross that running line out and he’s in the thick of things, though perhaps not quite up to winning.

SEVENTH RACE

PIPELINE just looks like a different horse with blinkers, though perhaps it was getting some experience as much as the equipment change that helped him since he was green in his debut and still kind of figuring things out in the 9f MSW loss two back. His action looked better in the smart, high-figure SAR MSW win on the turnback in distance, and trainer Chad Brown, red hot in stakes races this fall, has given him plenty of time (and works) awaiting this stakes race over the same 7f distance. If he breaks all right he’s in line for a favorable trip. RUNWAY MAGIC got to an 81 Beyer winning an MSW over this 7f trip during fall of his 2yo season, and following the turf comeback run two back, he hit a career peak last out in that CD N1X allowance. Lasix comes off after two starts on, but blinkers could have been the more important addition this year. Drawn somewhat wide but still could work out a decent stalking trip, and likely at fair odds. PICKIN’ TIME did run second to the mighty Jackie’s Warrior last out at Parx but was handily beaten by a horse who barely was trying. He has further form to back up that performance - even the Jersey-bred race against tough older horse Golden Brown - but I have hard time envisioning him actually winning this.

EIGHTH RACE

Really think the Ack Ack on dirt was. as much as anything, a stepping-stone race to get MR DUMAS back to preferred surface, turf, and here connections find an allowance he fits despite having five wins and a victory in a graded-stakes race. Surely needed that CNL comeback run two back and was caught up in a hot pace, but he’s a horse who has rated off the lead with success, a seeming must in this pace-filled spot. Way he performed in a similar spot last fall in lone KEE grass start is very encouraging and wouldn’t hesitate taking 9-2 or some such if BIG AGENDA really is going to be favored. Big Agenda also could work out a good trip and his off-the-board KEE grass finish last year came at a 12-furlong trip he didn’t stay. ARGENTELLO drops from the G1 KEE Mile, which also means he’s back on short rest.

NINTH RACE

Will MISS SPEEDY take to dirt? No idea, since we can’t see workout video from Churchill Downs (wish everyone were a little more horseplayer friendly!), where she has posted two timed workouts since moving out of Canada. We do know that trainer M Casse won this very race in 2018 with Shamrock Rose, who exited synthetic-surface races at Woodbine, but Shamrock Rose had previous dirt form while Miss Speedy has only raced on Tapeta. Taking dirt kickback is as big a challenge as any with this surface switch and Miss Speedy shouldn’t have to do that: She’s drawn outside and projects on a clean trip pressing or stalking Joy’s Rocket. Miss Speedy has done nothing wrong in her sprint races and I think she can overhaul the leader and hold off the closers for a mild upset. OBLIGATORY an admirable stretchout try behind the classy Clairiere in the Cotillion and now back to more familiar territory going 7f. Will be surprising if her presence isn’t felt. Her Mott-trained stable-mate CARAMEL SWIRL likely has a similar win chance at a little better price, 4201 Versailles Rd. Lexington, KY 40592 Phone: (859) 254-3412

Main track: 1 1/16 miles, oval.

Turf course: 7 1/2 furlongs, oval.

Distance from last turn to finish line: 1,174 feet.

TAKEOUT INFORMATION

■ Win, place and show: 16% ■ Exactas: 19.5%

■ Pick 5: 15%

■ All other exotics: 22% but no Lasix is of some concern here, and she might wind up in a tight spot down the backstretch. What I’m not worried about is the last-start run at CT - had rail, didn’t love the small oval, toss the race. I’ll be siding against the top two home in the Prioress, Cilla and Souper Sensational.

TENTH RACE

SANTIN didn’t beat a whole lot at Indiana grand, did manage to save ground much of the trip, and the raw finishing time wasn’t much, but there were no fast finishes in that heat and I’d trust the eye test here - he quickened beautifully, like a really talented middle distance turf prospect. I’m looking for a similar turn of foot, though at a shorter price than the morning-line odds. GINSBURNED exits the Bruce D., a G1 race in name only. Winner of that came back to fall well short of expectations at KD, though doubt that was a representative performance, and the runner-up got buried in a BEL stakes. Still, this is an N1X allowance, not a stakes, and since this colt didn’t settle properly last out, trainer Rusty Arnold has taken his time running him back. Think we’ll see an improved performance. EL SOCIO has front-end turf form to put him in contending range and has posted some quick drills since joining the Amoss string at CD.