2022 Preakness TIMEFORM US Pace Projector US

How does the Pace Projector work?

The TimeformUS Pace Projector attempts to predict how a race will unfold early. It displays the horses ranked by the TimeformUS Early Speed Rating – fastest in the front, slowest in the rear. The image shows where the horses are projected to be after the first half-mile of a route race. The front of the field is displayed to the right. It also attempts to determine if the pace of the race is likely to be fast, average, or slow for the field.

What is the Pace Projector saying about the Preakness?

There is no flag for this race, so the pace is expected to be average, or not favoring any particular running style. A field of nine entered the Preakness on Monday. Only one horse has a “Leader” or “Speed” TimeformUS Running Style assigned, morning-line second choice Early Voting (No. 5). There are three additional horses designated as “Tracker,” horses that press the pace and figure to apply pressure to the leader. These include morningline favorite Epicenter (No. 8).

Are there any quirks to this particular distance or

surface or field size that the algorithm adjusts for?

The field size of nine is taken into account by the Pace Projector when assessing if the pace is likely to be fast, average, or slow. The number of horses is slightly above average for races in North America, and TimeformUS studies have shown this does tend to lead to faster paces than normal. But in this race, there isn’t enough of a bump to show a “Fast Pace” designation.

Based on a more nuanced, granular look at the PPs, from watching the races, knowing the jockeys’ and trainers’ tendencies, etc., which horses do you think are likely to show more or

less early speed than in this Projector?

If one horse were going to try to be closer and perhaps on the lead, it would be Armagnac (No. 7). He won his maiden wire-towire in January and repeated this style when winning a firstlevel allowance race last time out. However, his two intervening starts in stakes show he may not be fast enough at this level.

Does any horse stand out as exceptional on TimeformUS Late Pace Figures if the pace turns out to be hot?

The top Late Pace Figure in the field belongs to the filly, Kentucky Oaks winner Secret Oath (No. 4). Next in line come Simplification (No. 1) and

Happy Jack (No. 6), tied for the second-best rating. Of the two, Simplification is much more accomplished and likely to be a factor late.

How have recent editions of the Preakness developed from a pace standpoint?

The Preakness has had a solid to fast pace in seven consecutive editions of the race, including last year when Rombauer swept by the field to win decisively from the middle of the pack. Winning styles have been mixed. Justify and American Pharoah won on the lead; Cloud Computing, California Chrome, and Swiss Skydiver won from tracking positions; and Exaggerator scored from well back early.