MARCUS HERSH

EPICENTER SECRET OATH EARLY VOTING SIMPLIFICATION

The crazy thing is six of the nine Preakness entrants are wheeling back on two weeks’ rest, give or take a day, yet only three come out of the Kentucky Derby. Secret Oath exits the Kentucky Oaks, and then there are Creative Minister and Armagnac, who contested allowance races two weekends ago.

Only one of those six, the Derby favorite and the Preakness favorite EPICENTER posted a workout between races. Nothing fast, nothing flashy, just a half-mile in 50.40 on May 16. You know why that is? Because this colt is big, strong, tough, and hardy, and he can take it. He has a great foundation under him and through every piece of training and racing has continued to develop and improve through the winter and spring.

Don’t expect Epicenter to bounce off his Derby. Here are the Derby/Preakness finishes of horses Asmussen ran back on two weeks’ rest, 15 days with Rachel Alexandra, who won the Oaks: Curlin (3rd-1st), Daddy Nose Best (10th-9th), Lookin At Lee (2nd4th), Hence (11th-9th), Midnight Bourbon (6th-2nd), Rachel Alexandra (1st-1st). You can’t say any of those horses regressed much, if at all, and I’d trust this trainer perhaps more than any other to have a feel for when to push forward and when to pull back. Epicenter was much the best in the Derby. Joel Rosario really had little choice but to follow Messier’s premature move at the halfmile pole, but that early run into such a strong pace is exactly what left Epicenter vulnerable to Rich Strike’s improbable rally. I think Epicenter trips out sweetly at Pimlico and becomes a very, very deserving classic winner.

SECRET OATH gets five pounds from the males and it’s because of that – and how good she is – that she’s taken to run down Early Voting for second. Even with five pounds, Secret Oath won’t beat Epicenter in a fair fight. She was, however, trained lightly into the Oaks and stands a decent chance of running to form.

EARLY VOTING is a good horse, but though he nearly saw out nine furlongs in the Wood, I don’t really believe the added halffurlong here is his friend. Moreover, Epicenter has the speed and the right post to shadow Early Voting’s every move, and unless Epicenter takes a step back, he’s the superior horse.

SIMPLIFICATION got a much better Derby trip than Epicenter and didn’t come close to running him down. He’s taken fourth because the guess is John Velazquez uses the colt’s tactical speed to slip into the pocket and get a favorable trip, provided Simplification can find a way out.