Louisiana Derby deeper than might first appear

You could bet on Instant Coffee to win the Louisiana Derby. He won his career debut at Saratoga, finished a decent fourth facing strong competition in the Breeders’ Futurity, overcame a slow pace to capture the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, and rallied steadily into stronger splits winning his most recent start, the Jan. 21 Lecomte at Fair Grounds, by 2 1/2 lengths.

Instant Coffee, Luis Saez in from Florida to ride, is a Bolt d’Oro colt of modest scope. He lacks early speed and does his best work in the last half of his races. His career-best Beyer Speed Figure of 92 fits the spot but hardly stands out in a 12-horse field. Instant Coffee, trained by Brad Cox, is listed at 2-1 on the track’s morning line.

Cox also runs Jace’s Road, who does have speed and can make his own trip, as he did racing wire to wire winning the Gun Runner Stakes by more than five lengths Dec. 26 at Fair Grounds. Jace’s Road got a 90 Beyer in the Gun Runner, which included Withers winner Raise Cain and Private Terms winner Hayes Strike.

Jace’s Road’s two poor performances, one of which was the Jan. 28 Southwest at Oaklawn, came over sloppy tracks. The New Orleans forecast Saturday calls for sunshine. Jace’s Road shines bright at 12-1 on the line.

“I don’t see much other speed in the race,” Cox said the other day.

Cox entered a third horse, Tapit’s Conquest, who could be scratched, according to Cox. Jockey Manny Franco was named on Tapit’s Conquest; Franco has no other mounts Saturday at Fair Grounds.

That would leave a field of 11 in the Grade 2, $1 million Louisiana Derby, a 200-point qualifier for the Kentucky Derby. Those points are distributed 100, 40, 30, 20, and 10 to the first five finishers, and with 32 already banked, Instant Coffee doesn’t need many more to be assured a Derby starting slot.

Jace’s Road, a Quality Road colt owned by West Point Thoroughbreds and the Albaugh Family Stable, has 12 points. The clock’s ticking on his Derby candidacy, if Jace’s Road really is that kind of horse. Florent Geroux rides Jace’s Road, who hit the wire strongly and galloped out well in the 1 1/16-mile Gun Runner. The race records of his siblings suggest this race’s 1 3/16 miles falls within his scope.

Cox has dominated the division this winter in New Orleans. Angel of Empire landed the Risen Star last month and heads to the Arkansas Derby. Instant Coffee lacks flash and pizzazz but keeps winning. Cox all along planned to pass the Risen Star and await this spot and said Instant Coffee has given the right signs in morning training.

Tapit’s Conquest loomed at the furlong grounds of the Risen Star and flattened late; Saturday’s extra half-furlong might not be his friend. Three more run back out of the Risen Star. Fifth-place Single Ruler started there off a maiden win,. He lost his position into the far turn, and finished with a solid run. Connections try a new jockey, David Cohen.

Curly Jack had trouble finishing second in the Kentucky Jockey Club, but no apparent excuse, other than a winter layoff, when eighth in the Risen Star.

Sun Thunder took a considerable step forward finishing second in the Risen Star, but got a favorable inside trip and a clean journey in a race that simply wasn’t fast. His trainer, Kenny McPeek, thinks Sun Thunder has more improvement in him Saturday.

McPeek also runs Denington, winner of a hot Feb. 18 firstlevel Fair Grounds allowance. How much improvement could he have? Denington got a 91 Beyer last out while making his eighth career start, his first on Lasix.

A better bet than Denington is the horse who was second to him last time, Cagliostro. Coming off a maiden route win where he looped the field with an eye-catching turn move, Cagliostro looked like a winner at the quarter pole last out, but didn’t quite finish things off while making only his third start.

“He’s moved forward in his training since then,” trainer Cherie DeVaux said.

Trainer Steve Asmussen runs two. Rail-drawn Shopper’s Revenge is in deep water, while Disarm looks like value listed at 10-1 under Joel Rosario. Asmussen feels certain Disarm will move forward from a second-place finish in a Feb. 19 Oaklawn allowance race, Disarm’s first start since Saratoga, and also has confidence longer distances suit this son of Gun Runner.

From Florida, trainer Todd Pletcher sends Kingsbarns, who is 2 for 2 but may be in for a rude awakening facing far stronger foes than he beat in a Tampa Bay allowance.

Baseline Beater, drawn on the far outside while exiting a maiden win, lacks speed and needs pace help he won’t get.

The Louisiana Derby is the 12th-race feature on a 15-race marathon; first post is set for noon Central. It’s the last leg of a low takeout all-stakes pick five – and there is plenty of value to be found in it.