Distance of UAE Derby the main question for Cairo

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates – The first 200-point Kentucky Derby qualifying race of 2023 comes on Saturday at Meydan in Dubai, some 7,000 miles from Churchill Downs. The Grade 2, $1 million UAE Derby drew a field of 13, and the first five home earn points, distributed 100-40-3020-10, toward qualifying for the 20-runner Kentucky Derby.

Crown Pride and Summer Is Tomorrow, first and second in the 2022 UAE Derby, both went on to Louisville and wound up no more than Derby pace fodder. And in fact, no UAE Derby winner has made much impact on the Kentucky Derby – not even Mendelssohn, who won here in 2018 by almost 19 lengths but was beaten more than 73 lengths at 6-1 in Kentucky.

Mendelssohn won the Patton Stakes at Lingfield before coming to Dubai, where Ryan Moore guided him to victory for Coolmore and trainer Aidan O’Brien. The same connections run Cairo in Saturday’s 1 3/16mile contest. Cairo, a son of Quality Road who gets an extra dose of stamina from his broodmare sire, Galileo, also won the Patton, and O’Brien and Coolmore reportedly are keeping an eye toward Churchill with this colt, too.

Cairo sweated up and looked mildly ill at ease when he trained Monday for the first time at Meydan, but his appearance improved as the week went along. Cairo won a Group 3 over seven furlongs at age 2 and has yet to race beyond one mile, but he wouldn’t be here if O’Brien didn’t believe he’d stay.

All five Japanese horses here for the UAE Derby have at least filed paperwork to ready them for a trip to Kentucky after this weekend. Perriere won the Hyacinth Stakes, part of the Japan Road to the Derby, on Feb. 19, but as of Thursday he was the least-fancied Japan-based UAE Derby runner, offered at about 20-1. More interesting than Perriere is Dura Erede, a Duramente colt with a somewhat odd build but an effective forward running style. Dura Erede won his maiden over 1 1/8 miles on dirt and in is most recent start scored an 89-1 upset on turf in the Group 1 Hopeful Stakes over 1 1/4 miles.

The lone horse ineligible to earn Derby points is the one colt who shipped directly from America, Worcester. His trainer, Bob Baffert, is banned, barring last-ditch legal efforts, from participating in the Derby this year. Worcester is winless in three starts but finished third with a 98 Beyer in the Robert Lewis at Santa Anita.

“He’s the fastest maiden in America,” Baffert quipped.

Tall Boy’s best American races weren’t as good as Worcester’s effort in the Lewis, and trainer Doug O’Neill sent Tall Boy to Dubai the better part of two months ago. Tall Boy has raced here once, winning the UAE 2000 Guineas on Feb. 10, and appears to have acclimated well, judging by a lively Thursday gallop.

Dubai Golden Shaheen

American horses historically have dominated the Group 1, $2 million Golden Shaheen, and the American horse Gunite easily is the most likely winner among 14 horses entered in this year’s race, run at six furlongs on dirt.

One wouldn’t know that, though, from English bookmakers. As of Thursday, the Japanese horse Lemon Pop was narrowly favored over Gunite, despite the fact Lemon Pop never has started in a race shorter than 6 1/2 furlongs. Lemon Pop exits a win in the Grade 1 February Stakes going one mile at Tokyo on Feb. 13.

His trainer, Hiroyasu Tanaka, believes that’s Lemon Pop’s absolute maximum distance. The 5-year-old was aimed at this race rather than the Godolphin Mile. Lemon Pop, a son of Lemon Drop Kid, is an impressive 8-3-0 from 11 starts but meets the strongest competition he’s faced.

Any of Gunite’s last six oneturn races likely would be good enough to give trainer Steve Asmussen his first Golden Shaheen win. Gunite didn’t quite stay a two-turn mile in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile, but had won two races before that and returned from a winter break with a romping score over capable competition in the King Cotton at Oaklawn. He was no match in Saudi Arabia for Elite Power, but that colt, the 2022 BC Sprint winner, has turned into a monster.

Four other Americans are entered: Sibelius, who has speed and the rail draw; C Z Rocket, second in the 2022 Breeders’ Cup Sprint, but also second last month in an Oaklawn Park allowance race; Grade 3 Palos Verdes winner Hopkins, who has speed but hasn’t been in the same class as a horse like Gunite; and Super Ocho, an early pace factor unlikely to stick around to the end.

C Z Rocket is one of two 9-year-olds in the race along with Switzerland, who won the 2022 Golden Shaheen.

Al Quoz Sprint

Al Dasim stands a solid chance of becoming the first 3-year-old to win the Group 1, $1.5 million Al Quoz Turf Sprint, run at a straight six furlongs.

Al Dasim began his career last April in England, but it wasn’t until the end of his 2-year-old campaign that he really found himself. Al Dasim, by the sprinter Harry Angel, won a pair of synthetic-surface races at Wolverhampton, came to Dubai, and has won three grass sprints here, all over the Al Quoz’s straight-course six furlongs. He captured two conditions races before winning the Group 3 Nad Al Sheba Turf Sprint by 2 1/2 lengths on March 4.

Al Dasim drew post 8 and gets a break of nearly 10 pounds from his older male rivals in this weight-for-age contest. If he holds his form – and morning training this week suggests he will – Al Dasim will take some beating.

One of Al Dasim’s chief rivals is Al Suhail, who has been electric winning a pair of sevenfurlong races during the World Cup Carnival. Trainer Charlie Appleby chalked up a poor showing going six furlongs last fall at Ascot to a soft course rather than the distance, and said he and those with owner Godolphin “have always felt this race would suit him.” Appleby also said the draw would likely determine the Al Quoz outcome, and Al Suhail breaks from post 2.

The Hong Kong horse Sight Success comes to Dubai in career-best form, and while most of his races have come around a turn at six furlongs, he did win two starts back going a straight five-eighths at Sha Tin.

Cazadero is the lone American in the race, and his trainer, Brendan Walsh, won this race in 2021 with Extravagant Kid.

◗ Bathrat Leon went wire to wire last year in the Group 2, $1 million Godolphin Mile and can do the same thing Saturday. The Japan-based horse, trained by Yoshito Yahagi, beat classy American turf sprinter Casa Creed last month in Saudi Arabia in the 1351 Turf Sprint.

◗ The two-mile Dubai Gold Cup might be the card’s most competitive race. The early favorite is Siskany, who never has won beyond 1 3/4 miles.