Favorites galore in dirt miles

ARCADIA, Calif. – Betting every favorite in every onemile dirt race this winter at Santa Anita has proven to be a winning tactic. Will it continue?

The three top races Friday are dirt miles, which have produced an unusually high rate of winning favorites – 53 percent (25 of 47) – and a corresponding flat-bet profit. One reason is limited starters. Average field size is 5.79 in dirt miles.

The bias toward dirt-mile chalk ticked higher the past month. Favorites have won 17 of the last 22, and the pattern probably will continue in the first dirt mile Friday. The next two dirt miles Friday are trickier.

Race 2: Favorite Bonaqua stretches out from a pair of runner-up sprints and should be heavily favored in the route for 3-year-old maiden fillies.

Bonaqua will be among the most heavily favored runners on the card. Bob Baffert trains the Tonalist filly, whose backto-back sprint seconds earned higher Beyer Speed Figures – 78 and 75 – than any of her five rivals. Flavien Prat rides Bonaqua, whom Baffert trains for his wife, Jill.

Corposo makes her second start for trainer Peter Eurton following a fourth-place debut, 2 1/2 lengths behind Bonaqua. Corposo, who produced more speed than Bonaqua, is likely to improve second out. Brunch With Amy should also improve second start back, while Runaway Kitten stretches out and switches to dirt.

Race 4: Baffert trains Flying Drummer here for Michael Lund Peterson, whose Grade 1 winner Ad are Manor retur ns Saturday as likely favorite in the Grade 1 Beholder Mile. In the Friday allowance, Flying Drummer moves up in class second start back.

Flying Drummer scored a decisive entry-level allowance win last out, but he faces legit rivals in the non-winners of two other-than $80,000 optionalclaiming race. Hero Status and Grade 2 winner Ginobili have won at and above the level; both entered for the claim price.

Flying Drummer had been off seven months when he returned Jan. 27 in a first-level allowance that got easier when favorite Judge Miller scratched. Flying Drummer, racing as a first-time gelding, inherited favoritism and wired the field to win by 3 1/2 lengths.

He faces tougher on Friday, including 7-year-old Ginobili, winner of the Grade 2 Pat O’Brien Stakes in 2021 at Del Mar and runner-up that year in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile at Del Mar. Ginobili stretches out Friday as a potential pacesetter. Hero Status is a first-time gelding.

Race 8: In this Californiabred allowance, Nauvoo, who won his last two starts by double digits, is another favorite who is no standout. His recent wins were gate to wire, but he faces a challenging pace scenario Friday due to stretchout sprinter California Tiger and route front-runner On the Whim.

Nauvoo earned lofty 98 and 94 Beyers winning his last two starts wire to wire. Friday, he must put away California Tiger and On the Whim. Speed Grazy, a versatile gelding who finished second in both recent starts at the level, is an upset candidate.