PEDIGREE ANALYSIS

Deterministic

Colt by Liam’s Map – Giulio’s Jewel, by Speightstown

Bred in Kentucky by Hinkle Farms ($625,000 Keeneland September yearling purchase by St. Elias Stables)

Deterministic makes a big splash as a newcomer to the Derby Watch Top 20 this week, debuting as the 12-1 third choice off his win in the Grade 3 Gotham Stakes, in just his second start, and off a layoff. The colt is from the consistently successful family of blue hen Courtly Dee and will look to call on some of that deep stamina as he progresses.

Deterministic is the third winner from as many starters, but first to win at a mile, out of Giulio’s Jewel. The mare won three of her nine starts at up to six furlongs; her two other runners also won only at sprint distances, including the solid racemare Frills, who took 10 of 29 starts. These are the outliers in a family that is generally long-winded. Giulio’s Jewel’s granddam is stakes winner Amelia, who won at nine furlongs. She is the dam of five graded stakes winners, all at a mile or longer. That quintet includes Kindergarden Kid, a winner at up to 1 1/2 miles; and Asakusa Genki, who later raced over jumps and won at up to 2 1/8 miles. Amelia is one of three stakes winners out of Aquilegia, who won the Grade 2 New York Handicap at 1 1/4 miles. She is best known as the dam of Alittlebitearly, who in turn produced Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Bayern.

Aquilegia is out of the great Courtly Dee, dam of champion Althea. Courtly Dee and her female descendants are responsible, through the generations, for more than 100 stakes winners. Some of the highlights among those include Eclipse Award champion Covfefe, U.A.E. Horse of the Year Festival of Light, Japanese champion Yamanin Paradise, and Grade/Group 1 winners Acoma, Aldiza, Ali Oop, Arch, Azzaam, Balletto, Green Desert, and Ketoh.

Liam’s Map, from the classic Unbridled line, won the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile, along with the Grade 1 Woodward, and was beaten a neck by eventual champion Honor Code in the Grade 1 Whitney. Deterministic was his 11th career graded stakes winner, in a group led by the multiple Grade 1-winning turf router Colonel Liam and the Grade 1-winning juveniles Basin, Juju’s Map, and Wicked Whisper.

Derby Watch Video: Every week at drf.com/derby-watch