Not sure if additions will help Bears
Offseason moves to improve offense don’t stand out — at least not individually
Optimism and energy are never in short supply for Matt Nagy, and the Bears coach is hoping to transform the offense keeping those traits in mind.
The Bears open the season Sept. 13 in Detroit, and whenever they're able to shift football activities from the internet to the field, the quarterback competition will be the focal point.
The Bears' faith in Mitch Trubisky is wavering — the team declined the fifth-year option in his contract — and challenger Nick Foles has run a very similar offense with two former teams and has connections with Nagy and new offensive assistants.
The Bears don't need to be marginally improved offensively, they need to be leaps and bounds better than in 2019, when they were near the bottom of the league in scoring, first downs, yards per play, yards per pass attempt, yards per rush attempt and explosive plays — to name only a few categories. They were bogged down in the opener against the Packers and for nearly the entire season, with few examples of the unpredictability and fun that highlighted Nagy's first year in 2018.
Nagy isn't delegating play-calling duties to new offensive coordinator Bill Lazor, but with the addition of assistants, including quarterbacks coach John DeFilippo and line coach Juan Castillo, new voices will be heard in the gameplanning process.
The question is how much different — and more importantl, how much more productive — the Bears will be with what at first glance is a modest series of moves around the quarterback position.
Added to the mix at wide receiver are 35-year-old Ted Ginn Jr. and fifthround pick Darnell Mooney. The tight end position has been overhauled with 33-year-old Jimmy Graham, secondround pick Cole Kmet and journeyman Demetrius Harris. Former Seahawks first-round pick Germain Ifedi is probably the leading candidate to play right guard.
Ginn, Harris and Ifedi are on one-year contracts and Graham has a two-year deal. Mixed with the rookies, it's a situation where the Bears certainly are hoping the whole is greater than the sum of its parts. They changed, but did they get better in the framework of Nagy's offense?
Here is how the Bears could be different and better at the skill positions surrounding the quarterback.
Wide receiver: Taylor Gabriel was replaced with a taller and older Ginn, who is just as fast. With speed being a need — especially compared with the players Nagy's former team, the Chiefs, have assembled around Patrick Mahomes — the Bears selected Mooney in the fifth round. He ran a 4.38-second 40-yard dash at the combine, putting him in similar company with Ginn.
Obviously the Bears hope Mooney turns into the kind of gem Johnny Knox was as a 2009 fifthround selection, or even better, Tyreek Hill is as a 2016 fifth-rounder for the Chiefs. Rookie receivers develop at varying levels, and some Day 3 picks never pan out.
A greater element of speed in the offense should affect defensive coverage schemes. Ginn and Mooney can be deep threats and vertical-stretch players, whether they're aligned outside or inside. They're going to push defensive backs downfield, and the result should be more twohigh looks. That will be predicated by down and distance, but in a broad scope, if the Bears can force more Cover-2 or quarters coverage, they'll be getting an extra run defender out of the box.
That's significant when considering running back David Montgomery averaged only 2.5 yards per carry as a rookie when eight defenders or more were in the box. Montgomery averaged only 2.9 yards per carry with seven defenders in the box, which is particularly bad, but Nagy is confident the running game will come around this season.
Lighter defensive fronts also will create more space in the middle of the field for high-percentage throws. That's going to clear out space for tight ends or receivers working on the inside. To make it work, Ginn and/or Mooney have to be a threat to the defense and get the ball from time to time. Otherwise they'll become decoys like Cordarrelle Patterson was much of last season, which doesn't fool defenses for long.
The Bears need to find out what Mooney can do, and it will be interesting to see if they limit his responsibilities to make him comfortable with a smaller role. If he can beat press coverage — the team lauded his route-running ability on draft weekend — he'll be able to line up all over the field. But he's rail thin and needs to get stronger and will have to be crafty to defeat physical cornerbacks at the line of scrimmage. If he struggles with press coverage, the Bears will have to put him inside and try to get him a free release or use him out of some bunch and stack looks to get him a free release off the ball.
It will be interesting to see if Nagy chooses to deploy Allen Robinson more in the slot. He lined up inside 37.3% of the time last season. Anthony Miller was the primary slot target when healthy, but Robinson is the best route runner and best at setting up coverage. A top slot receiver creates easy and quick throws for the quarterback. Miller still can have a big season, but perhaps Robinson sees more action inside as a big, reliable target who knows how to get open.
Tight end: Entering his 11th season, Graham has been durable and should pick up where Trey Burton left off in terms of production in 2018, when he caught 54 passes for 569 yards with six touchdowns.
The addition of Kmet gives the Bears a Y tight end with a bright future, and Harris knows the scheme, having spent the bulk of his career with the Chiefs.
Graham will not be the U tight end the Chiefs have in Travis Kelce or the Eagles have in Zach Ertz, but he has good length, and the Bears are banking him on being a bridge to the next young option.
Not only should Graham be a friendly target — which was lacking last year — the revamped position group will create more opportunities for 12 personnel: one running back, two tight ends and two wide receivers. The Bears ranked 28th in using 12 personnel last season — only 123 snaps — after ranking 11th in 2018. Nagy often talks about creating mismatches, and this is a great way to do it, being unpredictable depending on what the defense shows in terms of personnel — base or nickel.
Running back: Montgomery showed a little boost late in the season, averaging 4.3 yards per carry over the final five games after posting a disappointing 3.3 average through the first 11 games. The down-the-stretch figure is skewed slightly by Montgomery rushing for 113 yards on 23 carries in the season finale against the Vikings, who rested nearly all key players. But Montgomery did improve and finished with a 4.1 average on runs from the shotgun formation, which the Bears will be in a ton again this season. Montgomery also averaged 4.3 yards on zone-read runs, which Foles executes well.
The addition of speed to dictate coverage, more light fronts and two tight ends to create more gaps in the run game all should be subtle changes that can benefit Montgomery.
Adding it all up: For everything to come together, quarterback play must be dramatically better, which is whyall signs point to Foles. His career 7 yards per attempt isn't much better than Trubisky's 6.7, but Foles makes middle-ofthe-field throws well, which is where the Bears' changes can lead to the most improvement — especially if they consider deploying Robinson more from the inside.
Foles is adept at using run-pass options going back to the success he had playing under Chip Kelly with the Eagles. Foles can be a ball distributor and use run action to create open reads and easy completions with the ball coming out quickly. That doesn't mean he can't push the ball downfield, but he's not known for that.
One significant issue with Trubisky has been the speed with which he goes from No. 1 to No. 2 in the progression. Foles does that well. With Trubisky also not having a great feel for the pocket, which Nagy addressed at the end of last season, it affects things even more — his eyes aren't working as quickly because he's seeing pass rushers instead of downfield targets.
Nagy is placing faith in staff changes leading to improvement on a line that should feature at least four familiar starters. The Bears need to be more physical and must run effectively to the point that the play caller doesn't ignore that part of his call sheet for long stretches.
Above all else, the Bears have a high degree of faith in Nagy and his scheme. The personnel changes, at least on their own, are not overwhelming. The Bears traded a fourth-round pick to add Foles. Graham's $9 million guarantee stands out, but after that, they made bargain-bin moves. Harris will earn $1.65 million. Ginn is at $1.19 million while Ifedi signed for the minimum and Kmet and Mooney will be on rookie contracts.
The test is going to be how it all comes together because positive energy will have to turn into production.