No. 1 question: To trade or not to trade?
A look at what the Bears should do with first overall pick in NFL draft
MOBILE, Ala. — I had a little stroll down the street late Tuesday with a general manager for a team with a top-10 pick in the NFL draft.
After a little small talk and catching up, I asked if he believes the Bears will seek to trade the No. 1 pick.
“Oh, yeah,” he replied. “Why not?”
The natural follow-up question was if he believes the scouting process over the next 12 weeks will lead one or more teams to deem a quarterback prospect worthy of the high price Bears general manager Ryan Poles surely would demand.
“There are 12 teams that need a quarterback,” he said, implying need and a limited supply could drive a deal as much as the grade on the quarterback in question.
The number of teams in the hunt for a quarterback is subjective, but his figure sounded about right. And then early Wednesday, Tom Brady posted a video of himself sitting on the beach announcing his second, and presumably final, retirement. If there was any question whether the Tampa Bay Buccaneers need a quarterback, there isn’t any longer. Kyle Trask is their only quarterback under contract for 2023.
At least seven teams have a clear and pressing need. I will order them not based on level of need (desperation?) but on where they are picking in Round 1: No. 2: Houston Texans No. 4: Indianapolis Colts No. 7: Las Vegas Raiders No. 9: Carolina Panthers No. 13: New York Jets No. 16: Washington Commanders
No. 19: Buccaneers Three teams have quarterbacks who most assume will receive new contracts to return: the Baltimore Ravens (Lamar Jackson), New York Giants (Daniel Jones) and Seattle Seahawks (Geno Smith). If any of those quarterbacks changes teams, his old team would join the above list.
The Atlanta Falcons, picking eighth, have an interesting situation. Do they want to give Desmond Ridder a season to see how he performs?
Some wonder if the Tennessee Titans will part with Ryan Tannehill. They were hesitant to play Malik Willis at the end of the season. They could land on the needy list in a hurry.
The New Orleans Saints are stretched to the limit by the salary cap and have Jameis Winston under contract, but he had a poor season.
Do the Green Bay Packers pivot to Jordan Love in the event they trade Aaron Rodgers?
For the sake of discussion, let’s assume Jimmy Garoppolo leaves San Francisco. Are the 49ers comfortable with Trey Lance or Brock Purdy?
Some forecast a huge amount of quarterback turnover last offseason, and it didn’t quite reach predicted levels.
A lot of moves will be made in the coming months. It’s mighty cloudy when speculating whom Poles could partner with for a trade.
Sure, it’s easy to play connect-the-dots with the Texans and Colts. They have massive need at quarterback and are selecting in the top four. The Colts seem less inclined to go the veteran route after rolling through Philip Rivers, Carson Wentz and Matt Ryan.
Poles needs multiple options to maximize a potential return. The next meaningful steps will be movement by veteran quarterbacks. Some of these teams will be out of the mix for a trade as they
acquire experienced starters.
That’s when we will be able to whittle a list of potential trade partners and narrow the speculation as the question lingers: Will the Bears be looking to sell the No. 1 pick?
Why not, right?
One of the most frequent questions I get is who should the Bears choose: Alabama edge rusher Will Anderson or Georgia defensive tackle Jalen Carter?
You can have either/or discussions now, but my first reaction is that free agency likely will remove some needs and accentuate others more than a month before the draft. It’s also a complicated question if the Bears do like so many predict (hope?) and trade down below the Texans at No. 2.
Let’s say the Bears spend big money to sign a three-technique defensive tackle in March. I don’t think that removes Carter from consideration, but drafting a player at that position could be viewed as repetitive even if the team believes the two tackles could line up next to one another.
The Bears did that once upon a time, using firstand second-round picks on Tommie Harris and Tank Johnson in 2004. The roster at that time was in better shape than the current one. There weren’t as many holes on the depth chart, certainly not on defense.
I think there’s a good chance Dre’Mont Jones reaches the open market. He had 6 sacks for the Denver Broncos this season but wasn’t nearly as productive after Bradley
Chubb was traded away. Jones would be an ideal fit as a three-technique, according to one veteran personnel man, and that’s the kind of player the Bears need to target in free agency for major expenditures. They need to find guys coming out of their rookie contracts and entering their prime years.
It’s unclear what will happen with Daron Payne in Washington, another intriguing option for the Bears and many other teams. If the Commanders don’t use a tag on Payne, he’s also a good bet to reach free agency. Zach Allen of the Arizona Cardinals is also interesting, but he’s probably not in the same class as Payne or Jones. The more options the better because bidding will be robust for quality, proven linemen, and plenty of teams will have enough cap space to be involved.
If you’re stuck on the question of Anderson or Carter, instinct tells me a disruptive interior player is more difficult to find. That doesn’t mean premier edge rushers are bountiful, but athletic guys on the interior with the quickness to defeat offensive linemen and the brawn to handle the punishment that comes with the position are a rare breed.
This holds true for this draft class. There is ample depth with the edge rushers.
We first have to see what free agency brings the Bears to have a better picture of position needs on the draft board we all imagine Poles and his staff assembling.