US should defend Taiwan against threats from China
Is Taiwan next? That is the increasingly urgent question China observers are asking following Beijing’s upending of freedoms inHongKong, border clashes with India and escalating saber rattling in the Taiwan Strait.
Many inWashington nowfear that China’s growing ambition and military capabilities, combined with America’s internal preoccupation, have increased the possibility of conflict over Taiwan. The Trump administration has responded by upping its own rhetoric, increasing its official interactions with Taipei and selling ever more sophisticated military hardware to Taiwan.
Somewant to go further and urge Washington to abandon its longstanding posture of strategic ambiguity as to whether theUnited States would defend Taiwan. They urge a policy of “strategic clarity,” making it clear that Washington would respond if China used force against Taiwan.
A change inU.S. policy on Taiwan maywell be desirable, if only to signal clearly, not only to Beijing but to Washington’s Asian allies, that the United Stateswill protect its strategic interests in the region. But any such change should be embedded within a larger rethink of our policy toward China, which in recent years has become entirely confrontational, leaving little room for compromise, let alone cooperation.
To be sure, there are reasons to be concerned about China’s intentions, not least toward Taiwan, the island nation to which Chiang Kai-shek retreated after the Chinese Communist takeover of the Chinese mainland in 1949. Ever since, Beijing has insisted Taiwan is part of China and pressed for its reunification with the mainland.
TheUnited States accepted Beijing’s “one China” policy as part of its decision to normalize relations with China in the 1970s, but it always insisted that the conflict between the two sides be resolved peacefully. Over the years, Washington repeatedly warned Beijing and Taipei not to change the status quo unilaterally— be it by force or declaring independence.
Despite various ups and downs, both sides have over the past few decades remained committed to resolving their differences peacefully. But thatmay nowbe changing.
On Jan. 1, 2019, Chinese President Xi Jinping delivered a fiery speech, proclaiming that “unification between the two sides of the strait is the great trend of history.”
While accepting the possibility of different systemswithin one country, Xi pointedly noted that hewould “make no promise to abandon the use of force, and retain the option of taking all necessary measures.” A year later, in an annual policy report, Beijing for the first time in nearly three decades dropped theword “peaceful” when referring to the goal of reunification with Taiwan.
China has matched itswords with action. In recent months, the People’s Liberation Army has vastly increased its military activity in the Taiwan Strait. It has twice held exercises in five different areas off Taiwan’s coast in as many months, simulated attacks on its east coast (home of its missile bases and hardened shelters for its fighters) and consistently flew its warplanes across the median line in the Taiwan Strait, long regarded by both sides as respective no-go areas. “There is no median line in the Taiwan Strait,” it asserted last month.
All this might be for show, but it’s no doubt unnerving, not least because China’s decadeslong defense buildup has nowgiven it the means to make good on its threats. There’s little doubt that Chinawould win awar with Taiwan, even if such a conflictwould be costly on all sides.
That’s why some are nowurging theUnited States to state explicitly thatWashington will come to Taiwan’s defense if it is attacked. The hope is that this will deter Beijing from rash military action. Itmight, though the military balance in the region is tilting ever more in China’s favor. In recentwar games run by the RANDCorp., theUnited States “gets its ass handed to it.”
Yet, to be effective as a deterrent, Beijing has to see it as a defensive move byWashington, aimed at preserving the status quo, and not as part of a new offensive against China and the Communist Party’s rule.
That requires dialing back the strong, often counterproductive rhetoric emanating fromWashington in recent months. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has led the charge against Beijing, calling the Chinese Communist Party “the central threat of our time” and insisting that “the mission of our time” is “securing our freedoms fromthe Chinese Communist Party.” He’s stopped referring to Xi as president, his national title, calling him the party’s secretarygeneral instead.
We may not like the Chinese regime; indeed, it’s odious in so many ways. But predicating our relationship with this powerful country on ending the communist regime is a recipe for endless confrontation, conflict and evenwar.
We should defend Taiwan, a strong and vibrant democracy, fromChina’s encroachment, and certainly from armed attack. Butwe shouldn’t tie it to the nature of China’s regime. That’s for the Chinese people to decide.