Ukraine can win the war Ukrainian
President
Volodymyr Zelenskyy has repeatedly asked that NATO establish a no-fly zone and “close the skies” over Ukraine. Sen. Roger Wicker has endorsed this idea, while Mississippi's other Republican senator, Cindy Hyde-Smith, does not support it at all. The Biden administration and many Republicans and Democrats in Congress have been acting as if Ukraine is doomed to fail. They must get rid of that mindset and change it to one of Ukrainian victory.
On March 25, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated “total war was declared on us” by the West. On March 26, President Zelenskyy asked, “Who is in charge of the Euro-Atlantic community? Is it really still Moscow, because of intimidation?”
At this point, we are in a de facto proxy war with Russia, so it is time to go “all in” and provide the Ukrainians with not only the Polish MiG-29s, but also American fighter aircraft and a limited no-fly zone.
The Ukrainian people are willing to fight and have mounted a fierce resistance to Russian attempts to reestablish a “Russkiy mir” (Russian world) in what Russia refers to as it's “near abroad” (the independent states of the former Soviet Union). We must not allow Ukraine to experience similar fates that befell Moldova and Georgia through a “negotiated peace” that benefits Russia — that is, the creation of another “frozen conflict” in the Donbas where “peace” is a tool of control. Anything short of Ukrainian victory will have long-term consequences for the stability of not just Ukraine, but for Europe as a whole. This includes stoking tensions among the minority Russian-speaking populations within the Baltic states.
The U.S. must provide the Ukrainian people with the ability to defend liberty against an irredentist Russia. Indeed, the people of Ukraine have already stood up to tyranny twice: once in 2004 (Orange Revolution) and again in 2014 (Revolution of Dignity). The revolution of 2014 triggered a retaliatory response by Moscow, whereby Crimea was seized and conflict was stoked in the Donbas, leading us to where we are today. We must show our commitment to the Ukrainian people and get those MiGs to them, along with additional lethal hardware. We must stop dragging our feet while Ukraine fights for democracy against autocracy.
We must also establish a limited no-fly zone over western and central Ukraine. The establishment of a no-fly zone over western Ukraine will also protect the NATO member-states of Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and Romania against any Russian incursions into their airspace. By patrolling the skies of western Ukraine, we also protect our NATO allies. The reasoning behind the limited nofly zone is that it will be more palatable to many NATO allies (establishing any no-fly zone would require unanimous consent from all 30 NATO member-states).
I hereby call on Congress to pass a resolution in support of such no-fly zones, as well as declaring that the United States supports Ukraine being granted a NATO Membership Action Plan, thereby fulfilling the 2008 Bucharest Declaration and statements from the 2021 Brussels Summit. Those who argue against this will claim that it will “provoke Russia” and that it risks putting American pilots at risk of being targeted by the Russians, or some other retaliatory response by Moscow on either a NATO ally or the U.S. itself. Will this fear of the Russian bear be allowed to play out and therefore make hollow prior pronouncements? If so, our words will be seen as meaningless and signal a moral failing of the United States. Congress and the Biden administration must also not allow “peace negotiations” to be an excuse to not advocate and pass a resolution in support for Ukraine being granted a NATO Membership Action Plan.
The negotiations that occurred on March 29 in Turkey are but a delaying tactic, allowing Moscow to bring in its mercenaries of the Wagner Group and reposition its forces under the guise of “trust building.” One aspect of such so-called trust building, according to Russian Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin, is to “drastically reduce military activity” around the cities of Kyiv and Chernihiv. Notice the wording — “reduce,” not stop or cease fire. There was no mention of Mariupol or other areas in southern or eastern Ukraine, which Moscow will most likely attempt to annex as part of an expanded Luhansk and Donetsk, thus creating a land bridge to Crimea. The Russians have continued to shell the port city of Mariupol, reducing it to rubble.
This siege has reminded me of the Siege of Sarajevo, where indiscriminate shelling and sniper attacks on the civilian population occurred in Bosnia-Herzegovina during the Bosnian War. The Russian bear cannot be negotiated with; its “negotiations” consist of allowing humanitarian corridors that lead only to Russia and Belarus, not to western Ukraine.
Let's provide the Ukrainians with the tools they need to defend their way of life and show our support by advocating for their NATO aspirations. Ukraine's future is in NATO and the European Union, not serving as a reduced buffer state between democracy and autocracy.
Dr. Matthew Becker teaches on politics and security issues in Eastern Europe at the University of Mississippi. The views expressed are his own and do not reflect those of the university. He has a doctorate in Political Science from the University of Mississippi and a master’s in International Affairs from Florida State University. He was a Boren Fellow in Bosnia-Herzegovina. He may be reached at: MatthewBeckerPHD@gmail.com.