McCaffery: Phils, be careful of late-season numbers
PHILADELPHIA » Pete Mackanin was watching batting practice last week when Maikel Franco started hitting the ball hard and long, consistently, with perfect form.
“It slapped me in the face,” Mackanin beamed. “He had a nice, level swing.”
There is never a bad time to swing level, to sting line drives, or to collect five doubles, four home runs and 14 RBIs while striking out just four times over 14 games, the way Franco had before the Phils returned home Friday to play the Milwaukee Brewers. But certain times are better than others. And that’s what the Phillies have to consider as they roll into the trade deadline and the last third of a wasted season: Can they be fooled by empty statistics or swing-plane mirages?
Just before the All-Star break, after Odubel Herrera had a forgettable first half of the season, Mackanin made a proclamation: The center-fielder would hit .280 this season, and not a point lower. “I think he is going to,” the manager said. “He has his moments. Even two years ago, he was hitting .240-something at the halfway mark and ended up hitting .290-something. I think he is going to hit .280. Oddly enough, he is one of those guys nobody can figure out and he ends up hitting .280.”
Since then, Herrera had warmed. And, as if on demand, there he was, lugging a .302 July batting average back to Citizens Bank Park. Said Matt Klentak recently: “I think the total package that Odubel brings is still a really good baseball player, even with hot and cold streaks and occasional inconsistencies. If you look at it purely objectively, in the aggregate, he’s a good player.”
The Phillies could be right. They could just have some inconsistent players, which, in their spring-tofall, every-day grind of an industry is a reasonable business cost. They could be right that a player should be judged by his final numbers, not just by the returns from Dixville Notch. Yet as they swing toward another opportunity to rebuild their program, they shouldn’t dismiss the possibility that it is just easier for some players to produce when the games mean nothing.
Franco could be one of those players. Herrera could be, too. And, if so, how many more times can the Phillies play the first half of a season so poorly that their only All-Star is of the every-team-musthave-one variety? All of which is the peril of the trust in analytics that the organization has made under Klentak, even while some more professionally seasoned club employees wonder about more subtle baseball realities.
Franco is only 24, and he is in just his second full major-league season. He hits the ball hard, makes spectacular defensive plays and, once a week, minimum, he hints at the skills that could make him a multi-time MVP. But he has had alarming inconsistencies at the plate. It is notable that his first half was better than his second last season, a hint that he was slightly more useful when things may have mattered. But how many times can his occasional bursts of greatness be met with applause, not skepticism?
Mackanin insists hitting coach Matt Stairs has adjusted Franco’s stance by shortening his stride, and that has made a substantial difference. If so, it would be Stairs’ second significant contribution this season, including his suggestion to Aaron Altherr to abridge his swing. And if so, then the Phillies could dismiss Andy MacPhail’s loose announcement that no player in the organization is untouchable.
But why should the Phillies believe Franco finally has it right?
“That different swing path,” Mackanin said, swinging the theory around the room in defiance. “A lot of guys, like Franco, are low-ball hitters. If you swing up on a low pitch, you can hit home runs. You can hit doubles. But the minute the ball is elevated to the waist, a little bit above the thighs, that’s a mistake. That’s a home run pitch. And if you swing up on it, you are not going to make consistent good contact. But if you swing level, now you’ve got that mistake that’s already up and you can get a double or a home run.
“That’s what he’s been doing daily in batting practice. And the last three or four games he has been swinging like that. So I’m pretty excited.”
The Phillies need some fountain of joy in a lastplace season. Franco can provide one. So can Herrera. And so can Nick Williams, a Rookie of the Month candidate.
All of that, though, crystallizes why the Phillies have been so tantalizing: They have good players. They just don’t have players who, when tossed together, win enough baseball games.
Their statistics can fool. Their streaks can fool. Their general manager, though, cannot be fooled, not at a trade deadline that has a chance to slap him in the face.