Sleepers and busts: Players who could make or break your fantasy team
I could wax poetic about how wonderful it is to have players like Ronald Acuna Jr. or Spencer Strider on your fantasy baseball team — man, the Braves are good — but then I might as well tell you Taylor Swift is popular, stepping on a LEGO is the absolute worst or the internet is dark and full of terrors.
All of that information is obvious and won’t help you earn bragging rights, much less win a fantasy baseball championship.
The foundation of great preparation for every season is determining the players you can draft later and yet still reap a solid value (sleepers) and/or the players you shouldn’t draft at all (busts).
Here are my sleepers and busts for 2024:
Sleepers
VLADIMIR GUERRERO JR., 1B, BLUE JAYS » Guerrero suffered an uncharacteristically long slump last summer and ended the year with a disappointing (for him) 26 home runs, 94 RBIs and a .264 average. The good news is underlining metrics like his walk-rate and strikeout-rate continued to get better, and his .277 BABIP was the lowest of his career, meaning there’s positive regression on its way.
RYAN PEPIOT, SP, RAYS » Tampa Bay targeted Pepiot in the Tyler Glasnow trade with the Dodgers. I’m not sure there’s a team who is more intentional when acquiring players, so that’s reason enough to buy-in. Pepiot improved his control and command significantly last season.
BRANDON PFAADT, SP, DIAMONDBACKS » Pfaadt is an ascending young pitcher who struggled early in his rookie season, but steadily improved as the year went along, including five solid starts in the playoffs.
JARRED KELENIC, OF, BRAVES »
The sixth overall pick in the 2018 draft already proved capable of producing doubledigit homers and steals in Seattle. Now he joins a better lineup and moves to a more hitter-friendly park in Atlanta, increasing his run-scoring upside regardless of where he hits.
MICKEY MONIAK, OF, ANGELS »
The former first overall pick was buried in the Phillies’ farm system before getting traded to Los Angeles, where he showed signs of life last season. He struggled mightily against lefties.
Busts
ELLY DE LA CRUZ, SS, REDS »
Someone in your league will almost certainly take De La Cruz higher than he’s going on average. The range of outcomes are infinite. He has 40/40 potential, but he could also get sent down to the minors in a few months. He hit .191 with a 36% strikeout rate in the second half. What’s your risk tolerance?
RANDY AROZARENA, OF, RAYS »
Arozarena has been durable and consistent, but he just turned 29, which means it’s possible we’ve seen his peak.
CODY BELLINGER, 1B, CUBS » Bellinger is coming off his best season since his 2019 MVP, but his advanced metrics don’t bode well for a repeat.
BLAKE SNELL, SP, FREE AGENT »
Snell won his second Cy Young Award in 2023. He led the majors in ERA (2.25), but he also led baseball in walks (99), becoming the only player in history to lead both categories in a single season. It’s doubtful he’ll be pitching in a better home environment than Petco Park — perennially one of the top pitching parks in the majors.
RHYS HOSKINS, 1B, BREWERS »
It isn’t cost-prohibitive where he’s being drafted, but Hoskins missed the entire 2023 season after tearing his ACL in spring training. I’d rather give him a year to work through the rust. w