Rubio, Bush, Walker are GOP’s top-tier candidates
With Ted Cruz announcing and Rand Paul and Marco Rubio soon to follow, it’s time to start handicapping the horses and making enemies.
No point in wasting time on the Democratic field. There is none. The only thing that can stop Hillary Clinton is an act of God, and he seems otherwise occupied. As does Elizabeth Warren, the only Democrat who could conceivably defeat her. On to the GOP.
First Tier
1. Marco Rubio. Trails badly in current polls, ranking seventh at 5 percent, but high upside potential.
Assets: Rubio is the most knowledgeable and fluent current contender on everything from Russia to Cuba to the Middle East. The son of Cuban immigrants, he can break into flawless Spanish (so can Jeb Bush) and speak passionately about the American story in a party that lost the Hispanic vote by 44 points in 2012.
Liabilities (in the primaries): His Gang of Eight immigration apostasy, though his current enforcement-first position has wide appeal.
Major appeal: Fresh, young, dynamic persona is a powerful counterpoint to Clinton fatigue. Odds: 3-1.
2. Jeb Bush. The consensus favorite. Solid, soft-spoken, serious, with executive experience and significant achievements as governor. And he has shown backbone in sticking to his semi-heretical positions on immigration and Common Core.
Obvious liability: His name. It saddles him with legacy and dynastic issues that negate the inherent GOP advantage of running a not-again campaign against Hillary. Odds: 7-2.
3. Scott Walker. Has shown guts and leadership in taking on labor unions and winning three elections against highly energized Democrats.
Most encouraging sign: Ability to maintain altitude after meteoric rise. Numbers remain steady. And his speeches continue to impress. Odds: 4-1.
Second Tier
4. Chris Christie. Christie might have missed his moment in 2012 when his fearless in-your-face persona was refreshingly new. Biggest problem: Being boxed out ideologically and financially by Jeb Bush for the relatively-moderate-governor-slot. 12-1.
5. Ted Cruz. Grand, florid campaign launch with matching rhetoric. Straightforward base-oriented campaign. Has developed a solid following. 15-1.
6. Mike Huckabee. Name recognition, affable, popular. But highly identified with social/cultural issues — how far can that carry him beyond Iowa and evangelicals? 15-1.
7. Rand Paul. Obama’s setbacks and humiliations abroad have created a national mood less conducive to Paul’s non-interventionism. Strong youth appeal. Bottom line: High floor of devoted libertarians; low ceiling in today’s climate. 30-1. Longer Shots: 8. Carly Fiorina. Getting her footing. She is best placed to attack Hillary and has done so effectively. Can she do a Huckabee 2008 and, through debates, vault to the first tier? Unlikely. 50-1.
9. Ben Carson. Polling high but is a novice. Made cringe-worthy gaffes on the origins of Islam and on gay choice. Not ready for the big leagues. Chance of winning? Zero.