History says Browns will change coaches
BEREA — One might say no one with Hue Jackson’s record has ever kept an NFL head coaching job into a third season.
This requires a little explaining as Jackson approaches a creepy date with destiny in California today.
If his Browns emerge from their game against the Los Angeles Chargers still running on empty — they are 0-11 in 2017 — his two-year record at the Browns’ helm will be 1-27.
The worst head coaching start-up the NFL has seen was John McKay’s 0-26 with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 1976 and ’77 (the last two years in which the NFL conducted 14-game seasons). McKay won his final two games in 1977 to improve to 2-26 and was retained for 1978 (and six seasons beyond that).
This is the 40th year for 16-game campaigns. In that time, Jackson’s two-year start-up record is the worst, no explanations necessary.
The 51-year-old Los Angeles native has five games left to make his numbers less disturbing. Yet, even if the Browns go 3-2 against the Chargers, Packers, Ravens, Bears and Steelers (a big dream for a franchise in a 4-44 slump), his two-year record would come in at 4-28.
The worst two-year records of the 16-game era were 4-28 by Leeman Bennett (1977-78 Falcons) and Rich Kotite (199596 Jets). Bennett survived. Kotite did not.
The next worst two-year records were 5-27 by Chris Palmer (1999-2000 Browns) and Marty Mornhinweg (200102 Lions). Both were fired.
Plenty of head coaches who began a second season didn’t make it through the next set of 16 games, including Bud Carson, who led the Browns to the 1989 AFC championship game in his first season and was fired by Art Modell after his second season got to 3-8.
Jackson understands his precarious position first-hand. He was offensive coordinator of the Oakland Raiders in 2010. After the team went 8-8, owner Al Davis dismissed head coach Tom Cable and replaced him with Jackson in 2011. The Raiders went 8-8 again, but Davis died early in the season. Four days after the season, Davis’ son, Mark, hired Reggie McKenzie as his top executive. McKenzie promptly fired Jackson.
Current Browns owner Jimmy Haslam seems to like Jackson to the extent he might keep him no matter what happens in the remaining five games. If, however, Haslam winds up adding a prominent front-office figure, it might be on the condition the new hire gets to bring in his own head coach.
Meanwhile, Jackson nears the end of his second season with a team regarded as an underdog in each remaining game. If the Browns manage two upsets, Jackson’s second year would come in at 2-14, following last year’s 1-15.
Since the league went to a 16-game schedule, 30 head coaches have made it through
full seasons and were not back for a third. All of those dismissed had better two-year records than Jackson’s, including Pat Shurmur, who went 4-12 and 5-11 with the 2011-12 Browns, and Eric Mangini, who was 5-11 and 5-11 with the 2009-10 Browns.
Jackson’s story is unique, in that the 30 head coaches who made it through two years but not into a third year all had a better first season than Jackson’s 1-15.
There wasn’t much room for Jackson’s second-year record to get worse, although it will if the Browns go 0-5 from here.