Playoff race creating deadline dilemmas
There are 11 teams within six games of a playoff spot in the National League, which could make for a thrilling last two months of the regular season. It also means some front offices are facing tough decisions as the non-waiver trade deadline looms.
It’s easy to deal away your top players when you’re 20 games behind, but if the postseason is still a possibility, the decision to buy or sell becomes trickier. The Nationals, for example, are six games back in their division and trail the second wild card by the same margin, but there are enough legitimate stars on the roster that a medium-sized deficit is surmountable with this much time to go. Fangraphs.com gives the Nats a 42.5 percent chance to make the postseason. It would be unusual for a team in Washington’s position to become a seller at the deadline. That tends to happen for teams facing longer odds.
But with two wild cards in each league, a team can have a mediocre record and still be in the postseason race. And the path forward isn’t always easy to figure out. Here are a few teams in recent years that traded away key players —when they could have chosen to buy or stand pat instead (playoff probabilities below are from FanGraphs):
2014 RAYS. Record: 53-55 (11.8 percent chance to make postseason). Tampa Bay was eight games out of first place and 5½ behind the second wild card before sending ace David Price to Detroit in a three-team deal. The Rays received lefty Drew Smyly and infielders Willy Adames and Nick Franklin. The aftermath: Smyly was great down the stretch in 2014, but injuries have held him back ever since, and he hasn’t pitched in the bigs since 2016. Adames is hitting .196 in his first season in the majors, but is considered a top prospect.
2015 TIGERS. Record: 49-52 (12.1 percent chance for postseason). The Tigers faced a double-digit deficit in the division race, so the best they could really hope for was to reach the one-game matchup between wild cards. They were only 3½ games behind the second wild card when they sent Price to Toronto. Detroit would also end up trading Joakim Soria and Yoenis Cespedes in a mini-teardown. Among the players the Tigers received: Michael Fulmer, Daniel Norris, Matthew Boyd and JaCoby Jones. The aftermath: The deals remain a mixed bag for the Tigers. Fulmer was AL Rookie of the Year in 2016 — and Detroit nearly made the postseason — but he has struggled this year. Norris had injury problems. Boyd has a career ERA of 5.21. Jones has flashed some athleticism but has a .198 average in 481 big league at-bats.
2016 YANKEES. Record: 50-48 (8 percent chance for postseason). New York was 7½ games back in the division and 4½ behind the second wild card, but this was a team that hadn’t played in the Division Series since 2012. So the Yankees sent Aroldis Chapman to the Cubs, and Andrew Miller, Carlos Beltran and Ivan Nova would also be traded in short order.
The aftermath: The Yankees hung around in 2016 and finished 84-78, then improved to 91 wins and an AL Championship Series berth the following year behind sluggers Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez. Those players had nothing to do with the 2016 trades, but the Chapman deal did bring infielder Gleyber Torres to the Yankees, and he looks like he could be a star for years to come. And Chapman even came back to the Yankees as a free agent.