What Trump needs to avoid being a one-term president

in higher-income suburban Republican districts — including many that voted for Mitt Romney in 2012.

These losses are self-inflicted wounds. The economy is booming: Under Trump’s leadership, economic growth in the second quarter was 4.2 percent, and the unemployment rate has reached 3.7 percent — a nearly 50-year low. Yet Trump’s approval rating on the eve of the 2018 election was 39 percent, the worst for any president since before Dwight Eisenhower. By contrast, Obama had 46 percent approval before his first midterms, at a time when unemployment was at almost 10 percent.

The problem is that Trump has failed to do what every successful twoterm president has done before him: expand his base of support. Instead of trying to win over persuadable Americans and bring them into his coalition, the president has sought to energize his base in ways that drive those persuadable voters — particularly suburban women — away.

There is no need for Trump to choose between energizing his base and expanding it. He can do both by using the presidential bully pulpit to reach out to those who disagree with him. For example, suburban voters constantly hear from the left that Trump is a racist, and no one wants to vote for a bigot. But during the 2016 campaign, Trump reached out to African American voters, visiting a black church in Detroit and delivering a major speech in Charlotte in which he promised black Americans, “Whether you vote for me or not, I will be your greatest champion.” He’s delivering on that promise. African American unemployment reached its lowest rate on record. Trump’s tax reform included “Opportunity Zones” to revitalize struggling low-income communities. He’s fighting for school choice and recently announced his support for bipartisan criminal-justice reform.

So why doesn’t Trump visit a black church and say: “I promised to fight for you whether you voted for me or not, and that is exactly what I am doing”? His African American support has increased from about 8 percent of voters in 2016 to about 14 percent in a poll earlier this year. There is no reason it shouldn’t go higher.

Such outreach would be a start toward a broader change in tone. The best policies in the world won’t gain traction with suburban voters unless the president’s tenor become less bombastic and his administration less chaotic. Trump can win back voters who fled the GOP coalition in 2018 if he chooses to, and doing so does not have to come at the expense of tending to his blue-collar base. But time is running short. The longer he waits, the more impressions of the president harden, the less persuadable these voters become — and the more likely it is that Trump will end up a one-term president.