Some say election colors Ohio red

Others point to unfair maps, natural incumbent edge.

Democrats in Ohio couldn’t match the gains the party made in other states, and now some observers are wondering if the state itself should be colored in a deep shade of red.

That has implications beyond politics, because Ohio has long benefited from its swing-state reputation, which brings candidates, media attention and increased spending to the state.

“To be honest with you, I think a lot of folks in Washington will think twice before putting a lot of money into this state next time around,” said Dale Butland, a Democratic strategist and former press secretary to John Glenn.

Butland’s blunt assessment is disputed by some — including Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley, who says Ohio is not becoming more conservative — but it’s clear Republicans had a good night on Nov. 6, carrying all 12 of the congressional seats they held before the election and winning every non-judicial statewide race except for one.

In its only statewide win, Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, rode an advertising campaign that emphasized the “dignity of work” to beat Rep. Jim Renacci by 6.4 percentage points. Brown received more votes in the election than any candidate, Democrat or Republican.

But even money — Democrats outraised Republicans in many of the congressional races — couldn’t crack the domination Republicans have in the Ohio congressional delegation, though Democrats did up their percentage in all 12 Republican-held districts.

Common Cause Ohio Executive Director Catherine Turcer said the outcome in the races for Congress should come as no surprise. Ohio’s congressional map is so tilted toward incumbents that even enthusiastic candidates who benefited from a motivated base and enough money to go on TV couldn’t break through, she said.

“What can happen is that these very safe seats are created, and that means the focus is on folks who have name recognition,” she said. “Even when there’s a really good opponent who gets in there and engages in a more competitive election, it appears not to be quite enough.”

Gasper: ‘Do we surrender 2020 and focus on 2022?’

Even candidates in the least gerrymandered districts couldn’t get much of an edge. Theresa Gasper, a Beavercreek Democrat who challenged Rep. Mike Turner,

RED STATE?

The November election was good for Republicans in Ohio, but does that mean Ohio is a red state? After all, the highest votegetter in the election was a Democrat: U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown. Every other Democrat lost, however. Governor U.S. Senator Attorney General Auditor Secretary of State Treasurer Congressional races

NO BLUE WAVE, BUT MAYBE A TEENY TINY RIPPLE

Democrats had a higher vote percentage in every Republicanheld congressional district in Ohio on Nov. 6, but still fell well short in all 12 races. Republicans maintained their 12-4 advantage in the Ohio congressional delegation. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Chabot Wenstrup Beatty Jordan Latta Johnson Gibbs Davidson Kaptur Turner Fudge 2,005,627 2,286,730 2,021,194 1,946,544 1,987,916 1,960,075 2,019,119 * Balderson Ryan Joyce Stivers **Gonzalez * Pat Tiberi was elected in 2016, but resigned before his term was up and Rep. Ryan Balderson won the election to fill out the remainder of his term

**Jim Renacci ran in 2016, but did not seek re-election and instead ran for the U.S. Senate, losing to Sen. Sherrod Brown. R-Dayton, said the district is one of the least advantageous for incumbent Republicans in Ohio, though Turner won the seat by more than 30 points in 2016. The district is known as an R-plus-4 – meaning that all other things being equal, a Republican has a four-point advantage.

Gasper cut the 2016 gap by more than half, but still lost to Turner, an eight-term incumbent and former Dayton mayor, by 14.2 percentage points.

In the weeks since her defeat, Gasper has contemplated whether to run again in 2020. Redistricting reform was approved last May, but the new maps won’t kick in until after the 2020 election.

“Our biggest concern, quite honestly, is that the districts are gerrymandered until 2022, so is running prior (to 2022) an exercise in futility?” she said. “The question becomes, do we surrender 2020 and focus on ’22, even though that means losing the momentum we’ve gained.”

Uphill battle

Other Democrats see at R R D R R R R R D R D R D R R R 2,187,619 2,011,832 2,226,368 2,110,073 2,166,125 2,257,955 2,245,403 51.8 57.8 73.3 65.4 62.5 69.3 58.9 66.8 67.6 56.2 81.9 51.6 60.8 55.4 58.5 56.8 59.2 65 68.6 68 70.9 70.7 64 68.8 68.7 64.1 80.3 66.6 67.7 62.6 66.2 65.3 4,318,428 4,299,543 4,247,562 4,226,384 4,253,962 4,218,030 4,295,557 7.4 7.2 -4.7 2.6 8.4 1.4 5.1 2.0 1.1 7.9 -1.6 15.0 6.9 7.2 7.7 8.5 least some hope in the election results.

Democrat Rick Neal, who challenged Columbus area Rep. Steve Stivers in Ohio’s 15th congressional district, said he’s heartened that Democrats beat their performance in 2016, saying “we definitely moved the needle in a really big way.”

But Democrats continue to fight an uphill battle, he said, particularly in districts where President Donald Trump is strong.

He points to Democrat Ken Harbaugh, who challenged Republican Bob Gibbs in eastern Ohio’s 7th Congressional District. Harbaugh, he said, “worked for two years. He went everywhere. He talked to everyone.” Gibbs won with nearly 59 percent of the vote.

Danny O’Connor, the Democrat who narrowly lost to Republican Troy Balderson in Ohio’s 12th congressional district twice this year — first in a special election and then again in November — said Democrats made gains despite districts that are drawn to be “wave-proof.”

GERRYMANDERED STATE

In Ohio on Nov. 6, 12 of the state’s 16 congressional seats remained in Republican hands, or 75 percent. Yet of all votes cast in the 16 districts, 52.3 percent came from Republicans. Put another way, Democrats cast 47 percent of the votes, yet won just 25 percent of the seats. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Total 46.44% 53.19% 47.58% 46.06% 46.73% 46.47% 47.00% 50.66% 46.79% 52.42% 49.93% 50.92% 53.53% 52.27% 151,107 163,450 63,470 164,640 173,894 169,668 150,317 170,561 73,183 153,640 43,443 171,757 96,225 166,483 166,632 166,933 2,245,403

But Stivers, who chaired the National Republican Campaign Committee last cycle, has a slight different take. He said incumbents won because “we have good incumbents who are serving their constituents well.”

Many of the seats Republicans lost nationwide were also open seats, Stivers said, but Ohio had only one true open seat: Renacci’s, and in that conservative district the Republican candidate was former Ohio State University football star Anthony Gonzalez. He won with nearly 57 percent of the vote.

“We had good Democrats and Republican incumbents,” 181,992 -274,898 205,174 163,529 178,209 297,880 226,284 135,467 115,777 174,421 87,061 97,352 75,196 105,105 84,738 152,681 114,699 197,147 156,863 149,271 134,059 112,546 126,736 2,019,119 4.2 6.4 4.8 3.9 4.2 7.1 5.3 291,705 282,709 237,940 251,701 278,430 244,864 255,422 255,299 225,899 273,479 240,612 333,135 245,496 300,542 284,655 293,669 4,295,557 Stivers said. “That’s why things pretty much stayed the way they were.”

Whaley: ‘Ohio is still a swing state’

In a commentary that ran in the New York Times after the election, Whaley argued that Ohio is still a swing state. She called the legislative maps “absurd” and took comfort in the fact that Gov.-elect Mike DeWine outspent his opponent and had a huge advantage in name recognition, yet his vote total was barely over 50 percent.

“Ohio is not a red state,” she wrote. “But if national progressives write us off 51.8% 57.8% 26.7% 65.4% 62.5% 69.3% 58.9% 66.8% 32.4% 56.2% 18.1% 51.6% 39.2% 55.4% 58.5% 56.8% 52.3% 46.4% 41.0% 73.3% 34.6% 35.0% 30.7% 41.1% 33.2% 67.6% 41.9% 81.9% 47.1% 60.8% 44.6% 39.5% 43.2% 47.0% and Ohio Democrats fail to respond to the needs of working people in all corners of our state, it will be.”

Former Ohio Republican Party Chairman Matt Borges, however, said the state is red and has been for some time. He points to the fact that the GOP has swept nearly every statewide election since 1990.

“The question is: Is it 12-4 red?” he said, referring to the advantage Republicans having in the U.S. House delegation. “I don’t know.”