COMMENTARY
Baseball drafts often dictated more by signability than talent
Here’s the backdrop. Bernie Carbo was chosen by the Reds in the first round of Major League Baseball’s first draft in 1965.
The Reds waited to grab Johnny Bench in the second round.
Four years later, outfielder Ken Griffey Sr. was selected by the Reds in the 29th round.
In 2001, short of money, the Reds drafted pitcher Jeremy Sowers, thinking he wouldn’t sign for the $1.4 million they were offer- ing, and they’d save some money. They were correct. Sowers wanted $3 million or he was packing for Vanderbilt, where he pitched three seasons.
In 2004, Sowers remained a first-rounder, signing for $2.475 million, only with the Indians. He played four seasons in the majors, succumbing to shoulder miseries.
You could look at any team’s draft history and scratch your head.
That’s because you’re sitting on this side of the draft and not five or six years down the road, when you find out the consequences.
Reds scouting director here, or do you want to win? Chris Buckley pat iently Buckley points out not explained the discrepancy all the teams can afford the in bonus money. players they want. Siani, for
For those inclined to moan instance, landed with the about the recent failures of Reds in part because they the Reds on the field, some had enough bonus money to solace can be taken in that sign him, knew how much since 2012, the best teams it would take to obtain that are allotted less money for signature and knew most of drafting players than bad the teams also interested in teams. Penalties are harsh for Siani didn’t have the draft those who ignore the guidemoney to spend. Buckley lines, although 23 of the 30 could wait a round or two teams went over their allot- to get his player. ments in 2018. “Part of the information It’s more than just trying In most recent seasons, you have to acquire is a playto figure out which are the the Reds have been near the er’s signability,” Buckley best players. It’s how to sign top of money allotted and said. “It is a practice that has players and for how much. where they pick in the draft. been common for a number
For instance, on this year’s For 2018, the Reds had of years. Where the draft has Dragons roster, 19-year-old $10,900,400 to spend with- changed is, it’s capped. The outfielder Michael Siani was a out being penalized. In con- last few years we’ve been fourth-round pick and signed trast, the Dodgers were allot- down (at the major-league for $2 million last summer. ted $5,288,250. Yeah, the level), and that gives us a
First baseman Bren Spill- Reds went a little over bud- bigger cap. When it wasn’t ane, 22, was taken a round get — a million or so — but capped, big financial teams earlier, signing for $600,000. are we just playing games would outspend everybody.”
It isn’t, then, all about ability. It’s about ability at what price. Jonathan India — a guy we saw briefly in Dayton — was the Reds’ first pick last summer, and he commanded a $5.3 million bonus. The year before, pitcher Hunter Greene was awarded a $7+ million bonus by the Reds. Greene looked worth it while with the Dragons, although he had to shut down with an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery last week and will miss all of 2019.
Pitchers Lyon Richardson and Josiah Gray were second-round picks last season, and Gray has already been traded. Spillane was next, then Siani.
Richardson is with the Dragons this spring.
So the Reds’ top picks are here.
We’ll see if they spent wisely.