Politicians draw clear lines on abortion debate
Abortion is often cast as a clear, crisp issue in Washington and in state governments, with Republican and Democrats clustered in opposite corners. Joe Biden moved nearer to the rest of his party’s presidential contenders on Thursday when he dropped his support of a measure restricting use of federal funds for abortions.
But while the Democratic field now looks more uniform, the public’s views are often muddled and complex. They bear little resemblance to those of politicians, or even to those of the activists and ideologically consistent voters who post political content to social media.
Biden’s decision is a reflection of how much the Democratic Party has shifted since the Hyde Amendment was passed in 1976. But even today, a substantial number of both Democrats and Republicans dissent from the consensus of their party, or at least of their party’s politicians, about when or if abortion should be legal and accessible.
Overall, 40% of Demo- crats say they oppose legal abortion if the woman wants one for any reason; 29% of Republicans say they support legal abortion if the woman wants one for any reason, according to the General Social Survey, a highly regarded survey that has asked Americans about their views for decades.
Some Americans might not hold strong views about abortion. Different poll ques- tions yield different, some- times contradictory answers — even from the same respon- dents in the same poll. Question wording is always a fac- tor in survey research. But the differences here may also reflect that many Americans struggle with the complex moral and ethical issues at stake, even as the political conversation is dominated by voters who have made up their minds.
These less ideological voters are underrepresented amo n g party activists. They’re easy to miss, or at least some politicians seem to have missed them. A recent study found that many conservative legislators substan- tially underestimate support for abortion among their own constituents. It could help explain why Republi- can lawmakers in Alabama and elsewhere have chosen to support restrictions on abortion that go beyond what polls say their voters support.
The more abortion-wary Democratic voters have been easy to miss as well, but they are increasingly familiar to those who have followed intra-Democratic politics this year.
They are less educated, more moderate, more religious, more rural, more likely to be nonwhite and to live in the South. Demographi- cally, they are similar to the voters who have foiled the party’s progressive activists on many occasions so far this cycle, like those who have given Biden a durable lead, despite concerns that he touched women without their consent, or like those who wanted Gov. Ralph Northam of Virginia to stay in office, despite the revelation of a racist photo on his yearbook page.
The presence of these voters gives reason to question whether Biden will face a steep electoral penalty for his changed position on the Hyde Amendment.
Biden’s Democratic rivals can hope that he is out of step with a majority of the party. Elizabeth Warren, increasingly a favorite of the party’s most liberal voters, said Biden was wrong about the amendment Wednesday, describing it as an assault on the “most vulnerable.” Kamala Harris and Bernie Sanders also cast their oppo- sition to the amendment as an issue of economic justice.
When it comes to specific cases, things get more com- plicated. A recent Gallup poll found that 60% of Americans support abortion in the first three months of pregnancy. That number dropped to 45% — among the same respondents — by adding the con- dition “when the woman does not want the child for any reason.”