Toledo attack was foiled by tip to police
Someone in the Toledo community spoke up, warning police that Vincent Armstrong owned firearms, wanted to make a pipe bomb, and intended to kill and harm others.
The tip sparked an investigation involving informants, undercover agents, a covert search of a South Toledo home, an early-morning raid, and finally the arrest of two individuals accused of plotting a violent attack at a downtown bar. Investigators believe their efforts halted an imminent attack against a Toledo bar planned by Armstrong and his girlfriend, Elizabeth Lecron.
The seriousness of the threat was underscored by evidence collected during the investigation, federal prosecutors contend.
A duffel bag packed with a tactical vest, a gas mask, printouts about how to construct various bombs, and instructions about how to pick locks, along with an AK-47, shotguns, handguns, ammunition, and bomb-making materials.
It all signaled violent desires close to boiling over, officials said. Stepping in during the mobilization phase of the attack potentially helped save numerous lives.
Armstrong pleaded guilty in U.S. District Court in Toledo Thursday to criminal conspiracy and explosives charges. Ms. Lecron’s case in pending. She has pleaded not guilty.
Armstrong’s plea comes the same week as a mass shooting in Dayton that resulted in 10 killings — including the shooter’s death — and the wounding of 27 others. Federal prosecutors said the cases are not connected in any way.
Still the similarities are hard to overlook.
Both cases involved young people — Armstrong and Lecron are 23; the Dayton shooter was 24 — who had managed to obtain military-style rifles.
Both targeted an Ohio city’s nightlife scene: The Dayton shooting occurred outside Ned Peppers Bar in the city’s Oregon District, and the Toledo attack was aimed at a still-unspecified two-story bar.
Both were preceded by disturbing warning signs — Armstrong and Lecron posted online admiration of previous mass shootings, while the Dayton shooter’s past included red flags in school and in personal relationships. But the foiling of Toledo’s would-be attack marked a fortuitous turn of events; while Dayton continues to reel from the fallout of the worst sort of tragedy that can befall a city.
“This isn’t an FBI issue,” FBI Special Agent Jeff Fortunato said. “This isn’t a local police issue. This isn’t an Ohio issue. This is an American issue right now.”
When to report
So who should report what and when should they report it?
It’s a question Caitlyn “Adelia” Johnson wrestled with after each of the incidents during which her then-boyfriend, Connor Betts made her uncomfortable:
He was fascinated by mass shootings, speaking of them often and showing her a video of one on their first date. He once tried to send a threatening letter to an ex-girlfriend. And, in one instance — when he appeared to be in a drunken state — he told her that he wanted to hurt people. A lot of people.
The disturbing behavior led Ms. Johnson to end the relationship out of caution for her own safety, but nothing he had done was criminal or overtly threatening. She waved it off as a weird experience with an ex and forgot about it until Sunday, when Betts fired a high-powered rifle into a crowd outside of a popular bar in Dayton, killing nine people, including his sister, and wounding dozens of others.
In the hours that followed, Ms. Johnson found herself asking what she could have done to prevent the shooting. Should she have called police after the incident with the letter? What about after his drunken call? And what would she have said if she did?
“I didn’t report it to the police because how could I? With what?” Ms. Johnson wrote Tuesday in a post on her personal Facebook page. “I didn’t know the name of the (ex-)girlfriend and I didn’t remember where she lived. I can’t just call up the police and be like heyyy ?sic? my ex creeps me out.”
How do you distinguish between unsettling comments and behaviors that may make you personally uncomfortable, versus signs that someone may be seriously considering harming themselves or others?
Mental health and law enforcement officials say that when in doubt, let them decide.
“If you feel unsure about something, it’s best to call,” Toledo police spokesman Lt. Kellie Lenhardt said. “If you see something, say something. Then we can investigate it.”
Toledo police has a team of officers trained to respond to calls where the mental health of the subject may be a concern. Even if the call isn’t an emergency, a trained crisis intervention officer will follow up.
Just documenting the behavior can build a record of a person’s mental state and allow others to see more clearly what help may be needed, Lieutenant Lenhardt said.
“Mental health isn’t a crime in and of itself, but officers are trained to provide resources,” she said.
In Toledo, the Rescue Mental Health and Addiction Services website encourages people to report those who may be in crisis, “even if you have some doubt - don’t wait to take action. Call now.”
The behavioral health-care organization offers emergency assessments, referrals, stabilization, and medication for adults and youths.
The National Alliance on Mental Illness Greater Toledo cannot force an individual in crisis to seek help, but it can help friends and families understand warning signs, such as changes in behavior or eating and sleeping habits, and personal isolation, executive director Robin Isenberg said.
“The biggest challenge is that we have a lot of stigma around mental illness and people are afraid to talk about it,” Ms. Isenberg said. “As a community if we can do anything, it’s to get rid of that stigma. It’s OK to not be OK.”
Most importantly, she said, don’t treat mental illness as a prerequisite or precursor to violence, because “individuals who are treated are really no more of a risk for violent behavior than anyone else.”
In fact, most individuals with mental illness are not violent, she said, but when in doubt, always call.
“NAMI is a place to call to find resources,” Ms. Isenberg said. “That’s what we do.”
Toledo case
Lecron and Armstrong glorified mass murderers on the social media blogging site Tumblr. They posted photographs of their travels to Columbine High School and Mr. Armstrong holding a long gun, draped in ammunition.
Starting in April, 2018, they began to plan their attack, prosecutors contend. They wrote in journals about their desires to kill. They even thought about what clothes they would wear on the fateful day, which they dubbed “D-Day.”
Ms. Lecron purchased combat boots that she felt would not slip on all the blood during the attack, and a T-shirt that read, ‘False Prophet,’ prosecutors said during Armstrong’s plea hearing. They wanted to emulate the Columbine shooters.
But then someone who knew at least some of what was going on came forward to local police.That information was then passed onto the FBI’s Joint Terrorism Task Force, Special Agent Fortunato said.
A multipronged investigation conducted by the FBI.
While the couple visited Columbine High School in August, 2018, law enforcement executed a covert search warrant at their residence. Authorities found an AK-47, a shotgun, handguns, ammunition, and end caps — a component for building pipe bombs — purchased by Armstrong.
Undercover FBI agents and confidential sources began communicating with Ms. Lecron. In August, she stated she and Mr. Armstrong devised a plan to commit an “upscale mass murder” at a Toledo bar. She said she knew the bar only had two ways in or out, which could be a tactical advantage when police arrived.
In September, Ms. Lecron met with undercover agents and told them she and an associate started to make a pipe bomb, officials reported. In December, she had discussions with an undercover agent regarding a pipeline bombing, and agreed to buy black powder to make a bomb.
The investigation culminated on an early December morning, when as many as 20 federal agents stormed the home in the 3600 block of Willow Run Drive, smashing windows and arresting Armstrong and Ms. Lecron. They seized guns, bomb-making material, and other items they said were part of the couple’s attack plan.
“Obviously we see this as a success story with respect to Mr. Armstrong given the fact that he pleaded guilty yesterday afternoon,” said Justin Herdman, U.S. Attorney for the Northern District of Ohio. “It’s a success because we prevented an attack from occurring, we have a person who has admitted their responsibility in this case, and the statement of facts informs what was going on between these two people.
“All of that is a product of very good law enforcement work, very good work by our prosecutors, but also, we did get a little lucky on this case and that has to be acknowledged — the fact that we were even aware of them came as a result of vigilance from the public and people who felt like they needed to say something.”
Things to look for
Officials said it doesn’t matter who the public reports to, as long as the information gets to law enforcement. When reporting an incident or concern, Mr. Herdman recommended people be as specific as possible and include as many details as possible.
Officials said taking time to prepare an attack, having access to firearms, experiencing multiple stressors, and “leakage of violent intent” are all pre-attack indicators.
And while there are similarities between mass shootings in the U.S., each case is different. One of the biggest clues people should be on the lookout for are individuals deviating “from the norm,” Special Agent Fortunato said.
Behavior like erratic purchases of strange items can be an indicator of bigger issues, though that’s not always the case. A few years ago, the FBI received a complaint about a man purchasing items that could potentially be used for making an explosive, Mr. Fortunato said. Officials investigated, and found the man was actually building his own fireworks in his home. While not the safest practice, it wasn’t illegal, Mr. Fortunato said.
Still, it’s often a possible shooter’s closest friends or family members who can recognize and report signs of dangerous behavior.
“The people that have the information that can help us resolve these matter are typically closest to the folks looking to commit these acts,” he said. “You have a salesman that sees this person buying all these things - but they’re seeing one piece of the puzzle. If someone maybe sees something online, they have the second piece of the puzzle. Many times, we’re the ones who ultimately put it together because we get the leads to look into somebody.”