Iraq uprising a crisis; no known path forward
BAGHDAD — Iraq has been plunged into a new cycle of instability that potentially could be the most dangerous this conflict-scarred nation has faced, barely two years after declaring victory over the Islamic State group in a war that left much of the country in ruins and displaced tens of thousands.
The latest bloody confrontations have killed more than 100 people in less than seven days. But this time, the clashes do not pit security forces against Islamic extremists, the country’s Sunnis against Shiites, or insurgents against occupa- tion forces.
Instead, Iraqi security forces have been shooting at young Iraqis demanding jobs, electricity and clean water — and an end to corruption.
It’s still unclear why the government chose to exer- cise such a heavy-handed response to a few hundred unarmed demonstrators who first congregated last week on social media to hold a protest. But analysts say the violence has pushed Iraq toward a dangerous trajec- tory from which it might be difficult to pull back.
As the spontaneous protests — with no apparent political leadership emerg- ing — continued to clash with security forces in Iraq cities and towns, the government appeared unapologetic and failed to offer solutions to entrenched problems, rais- ing fears that yet another Arab nation will be mired in a long-term crisis with- out a path forward.
“The use of force coupled with cosmetic concessions will work to temporarily ease pressure but will not end the crisis,” wrote Ayham Kamel,
Middle East and North Africa head at Eurasia Group.
In their demands for bet- ter services and an end to corruption, the protesters are no different from those who rioted in the southern city of Basra over chronic power cuts and water pol- lution last summer. Or in 2016, when angry demon- strators scaled the walls in Baghdad’s highly secured Green Zone and stormed Iraq’s parliament, shouting “thieves!”
But unlike in 2016 when the protests were led by populist Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, today’s protests have not been co-opted by any political party. Most are young men in their twenties. They do not have a clear list of demands or a program, nor do they have a spokesman to speak on their behalf. Some are teenagers or fresh university graduates unable to find jobs in a corruption-plagued coun- try that sits on some of the world’s biggest oil reserves.
Their movement — if it can be called that — has no clear contours, nor any quick solutions. The protesters say they are fed up with the entire post2003 political class which profiteers on kickbacks, nepotism and corruption while ordinary Iraqis drink polluted water and endure mas- sive unemployment.
And most strikingly, the protests are predominantly Shiite demonstrations against a Shiite-led government.
Prime Minister Adel AbdulMahdi has promised to address protesters’ demands. But the 77-year-old premier began his tenure last year fac- ing a raft of accumulated chal- lenges, including high unem- ployment, widespread corruption, dilapidated public services and poor security, and he has told protesters there is no “magic solution for all that.”
The crisis erupted on Oct. 1 after protesters who had organized on social media staged a demonstra- tion calling for their rights. They were met with water cannons, tear gas and bullets. The demonstrations were par tially triggered by anger over the abrupt removal of a top Shiite military who led battles against Islamic State militants and was largely seen as a non-cor- rupt, respected general. But the protesters carried a long list of grievances.
The protests come at a critical moment for Iraq, which had been caught in the middle of escalating tensions between the United States and the regional Shiite power Iran — both allies of the Baghdad government. Iraq’s weak prime minister has struggled to remain neu- tral amid those tensions.
Adding to the nervousness, mysterious airstrikes blamed on Israel had for weeks targeted military bases and ammunitions depot in Iraq belonging to Iran-backed militias, which vowed revenge against American troops stationed here.
The protests, when they started, quickly spread from Baghdad to the Shiite heartland in the south, including the flashpoint city of Basra. The government imposed a round-the-clock curfew and shut down the internet for days, in a desperate attempt to quell the protests.
Interior Ministry spokesman Maj. Gen. Saad Maan said Sunday that at least 104 people have been killed and more than 6,000 wounded in the unrest. He said eight members of the security forces were among those killed and 51 public buildings and eight political party headquarters had been torched by protesters.