Oscar predictions: Can ‘Parasite’ upset ‘1917’?
Ahead of Sunday’s 92nd Academy Awards, Associated Press Film Writer Jake Coyle shares his predictions for a ceremony with a lot of locks but the potential for a few surprises.
BEST PICTURE
The Nominees: “Ford v Ferrari,” “The Irishman,” “Jojo Rabbit,” “Joker,” “Little Women,” “Marriage Story,” “1917,” “Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood,” “Parasite” Will Win: “Parasite”
Should Win: “Parasite” Should Have Been a Contender: “The Last Black Man in San Francisco”
The last-arriving contender, Sam Mendes’ World War I film “1917,” has seemingly, fittingly run away with it. The top-prize winner of the Producers Guild, the Directors Guild and the BAFTAs, “1917” is the clear favorite. But I think Bong Joon Ho’s universally beloved “Parasite” could pull off an upset that would rank alongside the underdog win of “Moonlight” three years ago. Taking best ensemble from the Screen Actors Guild showed that “Parasite” has perhaps the most important vote in the actors (they make up the largest percentage of the film academy), and academy membership has also grown more international in recent years. The time may be right for the first foreign-language film to win best picture, and “Parasite” deserves it.
BEST ACTRESS
The Nominees: Cynthia Erivo, “Harriet”; Scarlett Johansson, “Marriage Story”; Saoirse Ronan, “Little Women”; Charlize Theron, “Bombshell”; Renee Zellweger, “Judy Will Win: Renee Zellweger Should Win: Saoirse Ronan Should Have Been a Contender: Alfre Woodard, “Clemency”
Zellweger is already a winner for “Cold Mountain” in 2004. But her fragile yet powerhouse performance as Judy Garland in “Judy” is that irresistible thing: a comeback story. The part reverberates with Zellweger’s own history; she and Garland are both former American sweethearts. She’s a fine choice, but the verve and velocity of Ronan’s great performance in “Little Women” shouldn’t be overlooked. Formidable as this category is, it would have been better with Woodard’s fully inhabited, devastatingly still performance as a prison warden in the spare “Clemency” — not to mention Lupita Nyong’o’s ferocious double act in “Us.”
BEST ACTOR
The Nominees: Antonio Banderas, “Pain and Glory”; Leonardo DiCaprio, “Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood”; Adam Driver, “Marriage Story”; Joaquin Phoenix, “Joker”; Jonathan Pryce, “The Two Popes” Will Win: Joaquin Phoenix Should Win: Adam Driver Should Have Been a Contender: Andre Holland, “High Flying Bird”
After several years of lethargy, best actor is the year’s most competitive category. The next five options — including Adam Sandler (“Uncut Gems”) and Eddie Murphy (“Dolemite Is My Name”) — are equally good. Phoenix, like all of this year’s acting favorites, has been the clear front-runner for some time, for his morose yet limber Joker. But Driver’s performance in “Marriage Story” is the real show-stopper here; a more nuanced and rewarding performance that culminates beautifully in song and tears. A shout-out also to the exceptional Holland, whose guileful, fast-talking NBA agent in “High Flying Bird” felt like a thrilling fast break.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
The Nominees: Kathy Bates, “Richard Jewell”; Laura Dern, “Marriage Story”; Scarlett Johansson, “Jojo Rabbit”; Florence Pugh, “Little Women”; Margot Robbie, “Bombshell”
Will Win: Laura Dern Should Win: Laura Dern Should Have Been a Contender: Zhao Shuzhen, “The Farewell”
Dern has won every precursor award ahead of the Oscars, and is poised to win her first Academy Award. That’s cause for celebration. Dern has been one of the finest actresses in Hollywood for decades, and her fearsome divorce attorney in “Marriage Story” is indelible, particularly her fabulous monologue on the double-standards of modern marriage. But this category is also missing some worthy actresses, including Jennifer Lopez (“Hustlers”) and Shuzhen, who played the grandmother unaware of her own cancer diagnosis in Lulu Wang’s tender family drama “The Farewell.”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
The Nominees: Tom Hanks, “A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood”; Anthony Hopkins, “The Two Popes”; Al Pacino, “The Irishman”; Joe Pesci, “The Irishman”; Brad Pitt, “Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood”
Will Win: Brad Pitt
Should Win: Brad Pitt Should Have Been a Contender: Wesley Snipes, “Dolemite Is My Name”
Nothing is more certain this year than Pitt’s win for “Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood,” a movie that perfectly showcases Pitt’s sly charisma. His march toward his first acting Oscar has been fun, too, in a string of acceptance speeches (thanks to an apparent joke writer helping him out) filled with memorable one-liners. The talent in this category is extraordinary — Pesci or Hanks would win most years — but it’s still a shame there wasn’t room for Snipes’ irresistible prima donna actor-turned-director in “Dolemite Is My Name” or Rob Morgan’s powerful death row inmate in “Just Mercy.”
DIRECTOR
The Nominees: Martin Scorsese, “The Irishman”; Todd Phillips, “Joker”; Sam Mendes, “1917”; Quentin Tarantino, “Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood”; Bong Joon Ho, “Parasite”
Will Win: Sam Mendes Should Win: Martin Scorsese Should Have Been a Contender: Mendes appears the favorite here for the technical acumen of his seemingly-one-take “1917.” The pristine command of Bong would be a better choice but so would the colossal achievement of Scorsese in “The Irishman.” He has won best director only once before. And in 2019, Scorsese not only produced a career-crowning masterwork but mounted a passionate defense for the future of cinema. Greta Gerwig deserved to be among the nominees here for her thrillingly vibrant “Little Women,” but so did Marielle Heller (“A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood”), whose talent with texture, performance and authenticity doesn’t announce itself, and can go underappreciated.
DOCUMENTARY
The Nominees: “American Fac
tory,” Julia Rieichert, Steven Bognar; “The Cave,” Feras Fayyad; “The Edge of Democracy,” Petra Costa; “For Sama,” Waad Al-Kateab, Edward Watts; “Honeyland,”