Trump aside, Hispanic vote is not a given for Democrats

As ambivalent as I am about a Donald Trump victory — or, for that matter, a Joe Biden one — there is one scenario I would enjoy: What if Trump was re-elected thanks to support from Hispanics?

Now, I should say this is only a remote possibility. There’s zero indication Trump can win a majority of Hispanics nationally. Biden has about a 20-point lead among Latino voters. But this comes to mind because Biden is underperforming among the fastest growing demographic group, even at a time when he is generally doing better than Hillary Clinton did in 2016 and has been holding a steady lead over Trump.

The worry for the Biden campaign is that Trump is leading among Hispanics in Florida, a crucial state for Democrats and a must-win for Republicans. This is largely because Cuban-Americans tend to bemore supportive of Republicans more than other Hispanic groups, and Trump’s anti-socialist rhetoric probably has appeal to a community with long memories of Castro’s takeover of Cuba.

But the fact that Trump is doing well with Hispanic voters in Florida highlights an important point: Hispanics aren’t a monolithic group. Cuban-Americans are different than Mexican-Americans and Mexican-Americans are different than Puerto Ricans.

This is true culturally but it’s also true as a matter of public policy. The national media often makes it seem like Hispanics care about immigration with equal intensity simply by virtue of the fact that they’re Hispanic. But Cuban-Americans had a special carveout in immigration law (until 2017 when Obama ended the “wet foot dry foot” policy as part of his overture to Cuba). Puerto Ricans may care about immigration for principled reasons, but it’s worth remembering that Puerto Ricans aren’t immigrants. They’re U.S. citizens.

So why would I enjoy it if Hispanics voted decisively for Trump? Because it would make some people look like idiots and force pretty much everyone to rethink their locked-in positions on not just immigration but on identity politics generally.

Much of the intensity around the immigration issue recently has stemmed from the belief that Democrats want

“open borders” so they can import Democratic voters. There are thoughtful and non-racist versions of this argument and there are dumb and racist versions of it as well. But it’s mostly a lazy talking point.

It’s a persuasive talking point to many because many Democrats talk as if that is their thinking. As Peter Beinart noted in a 2017 essay, “As the Democrats grew more reliant on Latino votes, they were more influenced by pro-immigrant activism.” In 2008, he noted, the Democratic platform condemned illegal immigration. In 2016, the platform didn’t mention it. According to many Democrats, the word “illegal” has a nativist and offensive tinge.

I hate most of Trump’s rhetoric about immigration and immigrants, but wouldn’t it be wild if it turned out to be more offensive to rich white liberals than to the actual targets of his diatribes?

I wish Trump wouldn’t use racist rhetoric about immigration. But if Hispanics voted for him despite that and despite his policies (or even because of them), it would deal a mortal wound to the claim that wanting to enforce immigration laws or making our immigration system more restrictive is racist.

Lastly, Hispanics themselves would benefit simply by virtue of the fact that both parties would compete for their votes.

Trump’s success with Hispanics suggests it could happen, particularly with a Hispanic nominee. That’s something to hope for.