Experience convinced Midwest of virus dangers
SIOUX FALLS, S. D. — As much of the country experiences spiking virus rates, a reprieve from a devastating surge of the coronavirus in the Upper Midwest has given cautious relief to health officials, though they worry that infections remain rampant and holiday gatherings could reignite theworst outbreaks of the pandemic.
States in the northern stretches of the Midwest and Great Plains sawthe nation’s worst rates of coronavirus infectionsintheweeksbefore Thanksgiving, stretching hospitals beyond capacity and leading to states such as North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa and Wisconsin reporting some of the nation’s highest deaths per capita duringNovember.
Butoverthelasttwoweeks, those states have seen their averagedailycasesdrop, with decreases ranging from20% in Iowa to asmuch as 66% in North Dakota, according to Johns Hopkins researchers. Since the middle of November, the entire region has returned to levels similar to those seen in October.
“We’re in a place where we’ve controlled the fire, but itwould be very easy for it to flare up again if conditionswere right,” said Ryan Demmer, an epidemiologist at the University of Minnesota School of PublicHealth.
For a region that was a harbinger of the virus waves that nowplaguemuch of the country, the positive direction in the Midwest offers hope that people can rally to take virus precautions seriously as they await vaccines during what experts think will be the final months of the pandemic.
Governors have used the
declining numbers to justify their divergentapproaches to fighting the pandemic, even jousting at times. In Minnesota, Gov. TimWalz, a Democrat, has defended keeping some restrictions in place through early January, saying limits on bars and restaurants areworking. In neighboring SouthDakota, Republican Gov. Kristi Noem has argued the opposite, using the recent decline in numbers inher state to argue that mask mandates don’t make a difference.
But some epidemiologists believe the most compelling factor for manywho redoubled their efforts to prevent infections may be that they experienced the virus on a personal level. As the pandemic crept into communities across the Midwest, more peoplehad lovedones, friends or acquaintances fall ill or die.
“It’s fox hole religion— the whole thing gets a lot more realwhentheguynext toyou gets shot,” said Dr. Christine Petersen, the director of the Center for Emerging Infectious Diseases at the University of Iowa. “All of a sudden, your local hospital is full, and your sister, aunt, or grandmother is in the hospital.”
Roughly one of out every 278 people across northern states spanning from Wisconsin toMontana required hospital care for COVID-19, according to data from the COVID Tracking Project. In tight-knitcommunities, those experiences hit home.
The virus outbreakwas so widespread by earlyNovember that nearly everyone has known someone severely affected by COVID-19, said Dr. James Lawler with the University of NebraskaMedical Center’s Global Center for Health Security.
“That seems to bring things home in a way that just talking about it earlier did not,” he said, noting that he’s observed more people wearing face masks, as well as avoiding gatherings, parties and indoor dining.
Until the fall, the Upper Midwest had not seen the widespread outbreaks and high death rates that other parts of the country experienced in the early months of the pandemic. Many took lax approaches to virus mitigation measures. Republican governors in the region eschewed government mandates for mask-wearing or other efforts to prevent infections.