Will adults need 4th dose of vaccine? It’s too soon to know

WASHINGTON — Although new federal data suggests that the effectiveness of booster shots wanes after about four months, the Biden administration is not plan- ning to recommend fourth doses of the coronavirus vaccine anytime soon.

“We simply don’t have enough data to know that it’s a good thing to do,” Dr. Peter Marks, who heads the division of theFood and Drug Administration that regu- lates vaccines, said last week.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, chief medical adviser to the White House, said the vaccines are still a firm bulwark against severe illness, despite data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention showing that booster shots lose some of their potency after four to five months.

The CDC’s research, released last Friday, ana- lyzed hospitalizations and visits to emergency rooms and urgent care clinics in 10 states by people who had had booster shots of either Moderna’s or Pfizer’s vaccine. The study showed the level of protection against hospitalization fell from 91% in the two months after a third shot to 78% after four to five months. Effectiveness against visits to emergency rooms or urgent care clinics declined from 87% to 66%.

The data came with major caveats: Researchers did not examine variations by age group, underlying medical conditions or the presence of immune deficiencies. Still, they said, the findings underscored the possible impor- tance of a fourth shot.

“‘Should I get a fourth shot?’ That’s what a lot of people are asking me,” Fauci said. “The answer is if you look at where we are now, it looks like it’s good protection. Seventy-eight percent is good.”

The administration’s vaccine strategy has been under constant review since President Joe Biden took office. What comes next, Fauci said, will depend on whether protection from boosters holds steady or continues to drop — and if it drops, how steeply.

“It’s not only the number, it’s the inflection of the curve,” he said.

That means more uncertainty for Americans exhausted by frequent changes in vaccine recommendations — pivots largely forced by the onset of new variants. Dr. Sterling Ransone, president of the American Academy of Family Physicians, said his patients keep asking about whether a fourth shot would be necessary and if so, when.

“It’s frustrating, right?” said Ransone, who practices in Deltaville, Virginia. “We humans want some certainty and control of the situation. And this is a case where we don’t know what’s going to happen in the future.”

In Bangor, Maine, Dr. James W. Jarvis, who leads COVID-19 response for Northern Light Health, a local health care system, said he stresses to his patients how well the vaccines are working, even if boosters are needed. Although they don’t offer complete protection, he said, “the most recent data really suggests that these vaccines are still doing a good job.”

Data from Britain is similar to that from the CDC, indicating that boosters are about 75% to 85% effective against hospitalization four to six months after given. Israel has also noted waning of the Pfizer vaccine’s effectiveness in the months after a booster shot, according to the