Abortion ruling may help Republicans in November

Democrats seem convinced that if the Supreme Court does in fact overturn Roe v. Wade, the decision would provide them with a political lifeline before the November midterm elections. Americans might disapprove of their performance on crime, immigration, inflation, the economy and national security — but when it comes to abortion, Sen. Charles E. Schumer says Republicans are “on the wrong side of history and on the wrong side of the American people.”

Don’t be so sure. If the court’s conservative majority does strike down Roe, Democrats might find that decision is not nearly as unpopular as they think.

If Roe is overturned, Americans will wake up the next morning and discover that the justices have not in fact banned abortion nationwide but have simply upheld the right of states to impose restrictions — including restrictions that most of them support, according to polls. That is unlikely to spark the kind of popular outrage Democrats are hoping for.

In recent years, Democrats have increasingly embraced unfettered abortion access far

beyond what the majority of Americans support. In 2019, Democrats in New York lit up the Freedom Tower to celebrate the

passage of a state law that removed almost all restrictions on abortion, even in the third trimester, while in Illinois, Democrats repealed the state’s Partial Birth Abortion Ban Act.

The new Democratic orthodoxy is taxpayer-funded abortion-on-demand up to the moment of birth — a position supported by a tiny minority. So, if the battle over abortion moves from the Supreme Court to the states, Democrats will have to fight 15-week abortion bans (which most Americans support) and defend second- and third-trimester abortion (which most Americans oppose).

If Democrats focus on defending abortion this November, it will backfire. An April Economist-YouGov poll finds that abortion is the most important issue for just 4% of voters — trailing jobs, the economy, immigration, climate change, national security, health care, taxes and civil rights. This should come as little surprise. We are experiencing the worst inflation in 40 years, the worst crime wave since the 1990s and the worst border crisis in American history. Focusing on abortion amid these crises will make Democrats seem hopelessly out of touch. Every minute they talk about abortion is a minute they don’t spend talking about the issues Americans say they care more about.

Will it energize the Democratic base? Democrats face a massive 17-point enthusiasm gap going into the midterm elections.

The last time Republicans demonstrated so much more zeal was in 2010, when Democrats lost more than 60 seats in the House. But abortion might not close that enthusiasm gap in the way Democrats hope.

If anything, conservatives might be more galvanized by a Supreme Court decision striking down Roe than liberals — because victory is energizing, while defeat is dispiriting. The pro-life movement would be invigorated because the high court has opened new possibilities to protect the lives of unborn children.

Conservatives know they still have a long way to go to convince every American of the sanctity of unborn life. But they also know they are on the right side of history — and far closer to the sentiments of the American people than Democrats imagine.