Biden picks up ground against Trump in six key states, poll shows
President Joe Biden has gained ground against Republican Donald Trump in six of seven key swing states, and significantly so in at least two of them. The results make for the Democrat’s strongest position yet in a monthly Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll.
The move in the president’s direction comes after five months of mostly consistent Trump leads, and follows a State of the Union address that rallied Democrats and seemed to mitigate concerns about Biden’s age.
The shift was significant in Wisconsin, where Biden leads Trump by one point after trailing him by four points in February, and in Pennsylvania, where the candidates are tied after Trump held a six-point lead last month. They are also tied in Michigan.
It’s too soon to know whether the improved showing is a one-time bump or the beginning of a more durable change in the race, and Biden continues to lag the presumptive GOP nominee in four crucial states. But November victories in so-called “Blue Wall” northern battlegrounds would all but vault Biden to a second term.
Biden’s more upbeat numbers come at an inflection point in a campaign matchup that has seemed predetermined for months. The president and Trump each clinched their parties’ nominations on March 12, beginning an extraordinarily long general election season. Trump is currently strapped for campaign cash and holding fewer rallies and events, while the incumbent has kicked his reelection effort into high gear and is barnstorming the swing states, including a trip to North Carolina on Tuesday.
The poll also finds consumers feel better about the national economy, with a gradual increase in the number of swing-state voters who say it is on the right track.
The poll of 4,932 registered voters, which has an overall margin of error of 1 percentage point, offers a snapshot of where the candidates stand as they ramp up what is certain to be the most expensive campaign ever.
While the poll found Biden was most competitive in Blue Wall states, he also chipped away at his February deficit to Trump in Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina. In the seventh state, Georgia, Trump added to his lead. In some cases, the shift was within the margin of error.
Biden is blitzing all of those places with advertising, with 64% of his campaign’s broadcast television dollars spent since August in the Blue Wall states that looked most favorable for him.
Trump still leads across the seven swing states, 47% to 43%. With third-party candidates included, Trump is ahead with 43%. Biden has 38%, with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 9% and Cornel West and Jill Stein each at 1%.
A majority of voters with a favorable opinion of Nikki Haley said they would vote for Trump in a head-to-head matchup in November, suggesting he is picking up many of the supporters of his former primary challenger.
The poll was conducted starting March 8, the day after Biden delivered a spirited and unusually political speech before Congress that drew sharp contrasts with Trump — whom he referred to only as “my predecessor” — on issues like foreign policy, abortion rights, the border and gun control.