Here’s solar eclipse weather forecast for Rochester
It all comes down to one question - will Rochester’s skies be clear or cloudy for the upcoming total solar eclipse on April 8?
In just over two weeks, millions of Americans from Texas to Maine will scramble to experience the total eclipse of the sun. Rochester is in the path of totality — where the moon completely darkens the sun — making it one of the best places to view the solar eclipse. That is if the weather cooperates. Meteorologists from AccuWeather shared an early answer to that question last week and stressed that with the forecast nearly a month away, many factors can still affect what we will see – or won’t see – on April 8.
AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter explained that the agency’s eclipse forecast is based on the longterm historical average cloud cover data used by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and many others as a foundation.
“Then our long-range forecasters further identified weather patterns and trends that may potentially affect cloud cover to create a first look at the weather forecast for the day of the eclipse,” Porter said.
Some parts of the nation – including southern Texas, the Ohio Valley and the Great Lakes – have the best chance for favorable weather for April 8 based on the latest data, he said.
As of now, he said, “it appears that the Northeast faces the highest chance of clouds blocking the view of the total eclipse.”
“There is a good possibility that a cold front will be moving across central and eastern U.S. near this time of the eclipse,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Paul Pastelok said in the news release. The exact location of this front could be the difference between a cloudfilled and a cloud-free sky.
However, cloud-free weather could still win out in these areas on April 8, AccuWeather said. More detailed, specific forecasts will be available as the date comes nearer.
The National Weather Service in Buffalo also published maps on cloud cover climatology for April 8, based on an average of years between 1979 and 2022.
“While early April is historically a cloudy time period in the eastern Great Lakes, there can still be sunny days in early April,” according to the Weather Service.
“Also of note, this cloud climatology includes days with high, thin overcast when at least some view of the sun can still be available.”
The average high temperature for April 8 in Rochester is 53 degrees. In the past 23 years, the Weather Service recorded measurable precipitation in Rochester 44% of the time and measurable snow 19% of the time
Based on past weather data, Texas has the best chance of clear skies.
Specifically, Brady, Texas, the geographical center of the state, is predicted to have the least cloud cover, based on historical averages.
Parts of Ohio, Indiana, Pennsylvania and New York (including Rochester) might not have the same experience, as these areas in the path of totality are more likely to see cloudy skies.
Rochester has a 34.2% chance of clear skies. At the same time, Tonawanda (Erie County) has a 39.1% chance of clear skies, Watertown (Jefferson County) has a 46.7% chance of clear skies and Plattsburgh (Clinton County) has a 47.5% chance of clear skies.