History could be brewing in AL Central
When Detroit Tigers first baseman Spencer Torkelson closed his glove on the throw from third baseman Zach McKinstry to retire Minnesota catcher Ryan Jeffries and wrap up a 3-0 victory over the Twins at Comerica Park on Thursday afternoon, he was also grabbing a minor milestone.
That win, the Tigers’ seventh of the season over the Twins, clinched the 13-game season series for Detroit, despite having two more (this week) to play; it’s the first time since 2016 the Tigers have won their season series against the Twins.
The Tigers have also clinched their season series against the woeful Kansas City Royals (also with a 3-0 victory on July 20) with seven wins despite having three games left to play in September. That’s a little less surprising, considering the Tigers took 10 of 19 games vs. the Royals last season, as well as 10 of 19 in 2019 (a season in which the Tigers won only 47 games total and went 1-18 against Cleveland, by the way).
But a season-series win is a season-series win; the Tigers mustered six against 20 foes in 2022, after all. So that’s progress.
Look, it has been tough otherwise to judge the Tigers’ progress this season. After POBO (president of baseball operations) Scott Harris set the bar low at “to play competitive baseball as deep into the season as we possibly can” … well, we guess they’re doing that?
Are the Tigers scoring more? A little. They are averaging 3.95 runs a game this season, up from 3.44 in 2022 … but not as impressive when considering the league average has gone from 4.28 in 2022 to 4.58 this year — basically, the Tigers’ offense is still well below average.
Are the Tigers winning more? A little. They are on pace for 73 wins … better than last season’s 66 (and better than most of the preseason projections), but still worse than 2021’s 77 wins — which was, once upon a time, “the light at the end of the tunnel.” But 73 wins — or even 83 — will likely never be good enough for a playoff spot. (Even the Twins are on pace for 84 wins this year.)
One thing they are doing (so far)? Smoking the dang AL Central like Jim Leyland working a pack of Marlboros during a Fernando Rodney outing.
The Tigers’ triumphs over the Royals and Twins are their first double-series win in the Central since 2016. They’re also leading the series
against the Cleveland Guardians — with four games this weekend and three to end the season — four games to two, and within shouting distance of the Chicago White Sox, with the ChiSox up, 4-3. (That series wraps up with six games in the first 10 days of September, assuming we can pull ourselves away from the Lions to watch ’em.)
In all, the Tigers are 21-13 against the AL Central, with 18 to play. That’s a .618 winning percentage in the division. (The Tigers have nine seasons above .500 in AL Central play in the 25 years since joining it, and eight came during Miguel Cabrera’s peak from 2009-16.) Six more wins — and remember, there’s three more games with the Royals and six with the White Sox — clinch the Tigers’ first winning record in the Central since 2016.
It’s not just a few close wins balanced by blowouts, either; the Tigers have a plus-25 run differential in the Central, with an expected win-loss record (based on runs scored, runs allowed and MATH) of 20-14, one game off their
actual record in the division.
All of this is not to say the Tigers are contenders, even in a weak (weeeeeeeeeaaaaakkkkk) division — MLB’s new (mostly) balanced schedule means teams need to keep their heads above water outside of their division every season, and the AL East has been dumping 55-gallon buckets on the Tigers all year.
But beating the Central is a start toward respectability. The Tigers’ best seasons in the Central have, not coincidentally, overlapped with their most successful overall in the past two decades:
2006, when they shocked baseball in h grabbing a wild-card berth (after blowing the Central lead in the final week) and then the AL pennant? The Tigers won 60% of their division games.
2011, when the Tigers caught fire in the h second half and won the franchise’s first division crown since 1987? 69.4%.
2013, when the Tigers had arguably their h best squad of the Leyland years — including a rotation featuring three past or future Cy Young winners, the ERA champ and Doug Fister? 61.8% — the same as this season so far.
Even if the Tigers still aren’t ready to compete with the rest of the AL, they should be able to smoke ’em while they got ‘em in the Central.