As playoffs approach, Wings may be buyers

Yzerman’s options much different from a year ago

It’s now or never, Detroit Red Wings. With 32 games left in the season, it’s time to make the good old playoff push the Wings used to make in the good old days.

The good (but not old) news this season is: The Wings are definitely good enough to make that push.

They returned to practice Thursday for the first time since the NHL All-Star break and emerged with their most promising position to make the playoffs since they last qualified in the 2015-16 season.

And, if they get there, maybe they can even make some noise now that they have a better core, more depth and a scorching hot goaltender (Alex Lyon, who went from minor-league journeyman to Wings third-stringer to starting netminder while posting one of the NHL’s best save percentages).

You can look at statistics and projections — we’ll get to those in a moment — but the vibe inside the Wings’ dressing room Thursday indicated something far beyond numbers. The players know where they are in the standings, they know what’s at stake and they aren’t timid about discussing their drive toward the playoffs.

“I think we’re in a great spot right now,” Patrick Kane said, “and you know the position we’re in. You don’t want to throw all that away, all the hard work you’ve done to get yourself into that spot.

“I know they’ve really been building up a culture here over the years. And you know it’s getting to that point where if you get into the playoffs, be a tough out, make it hard on teams in the playoffs. So a lot of confidence in the group, excited about where we can go.”

There’s little question the Wings are in a much better place coming out of the break than they were a year ago. On the

heels of an impressive 20-point January, they have 58 points in 50 games and are plus-15 in goal differential. Entering Thursday’s games, they held the second wild-card spot in the Eastern Conference, four points up on the New York Islanders and just two points behind Toronto for third place in the Atlantic Division (though the Maple Leafs have played one fewer game).

Last year at this time, they had 50 points in 48 games and were a whopping 15 points behind third-place Tampa Bay in the Atlantic and seven points behind Pittsburgh for the second wild-card spot — with five teams in between. Their goal differential was a terrible minus-15.

That was part of the calculus that led general manager Steve Yzerman to trade away key players such as Tyler Bertuzzi and Filip Hronek at the deadline, scuttling any chance the Wings had to make any kind of late-season run.

With the March 8 trade deadline looming, it seems unlikely the Wings would faceplant so spectacularly that Yzerman would feel forced again to be a seller.

Barring an unlikely catastrophe, the Wings have done enough to this point in the season to earn Yzerman’s belief as a valid playoff team. Maybe enough belief that he’ll even be a buyer at the deadline and add some defensive help.

So what are the Wings’ chances of actually making the playoffs? Well, if you know how to operate a calculator, you know they’re projected to finish with 95 points, which was good enough last year to qualify for the postseason.

According to the 1,000 simulations run by hockey-reference.com, the Wings are expected to grab the last wild-card spot, two points ahead of the Penguins. They’re given a 70.6% chance to make the playoffs and a 1.5% chance to win the Atlantic, but a 3.1% chance to win the Stanley Cup. Apparently the simulation robot either has a gambling problem or believes in silly notions like puck luck.

Over at The Athletic, things are lot more dire based on 50,000 simulations — they only give the Wings a 32% chance of making the playoffs. But you can’t discount the idea that the simulation robot could be grouchy from being overworked. You try watching the Wings play the Buffalo Sabres 150,000 times and see how you feel!

Let’s forget all that. Unplug the robots and tell the stat nerds to scram and check out whatever Star Wars vs. Star Trek debate is raging on Reddit, because we got an even more consequential data point Thursday: Derek Lalonde actually admitted to looking at the standings!

The Wings coach called himself a “fair-weather” standings watcher. Hey, it’s always easier to look at your grade when you’re doing well in class, right? Lalonde knows his team has aced some tests, but he also knows that playing in the brutal Atlantic Division, housed in the tough East, means the Wings can’t rely on help from faltering teams.

“We’re never going to be there unless we take care of our day-to-day game,” he said. “And I know it sounds very cliché, like with a process. So there’s really no need to watch the standings. And the other thing I think with the standings is it’s not going to come to us.

“Our conference is way too good. That (points) number’s going to be mid- to high-90s. So it’s not like four of these teams are going to fall off and we’re going to back our way in at 88, 89.”

What will it take for the Wings to finally make it back to the playoffs? Lalonde has a pretty good idea and so do his players. They sound like it, but for the first time in a long time, they’re acting like it, too.