Season forecast: Why SJSU will have a winning year, or won’t.
San Jose State’s season forecast is tricky to project.
Along with the strangeness that comes with playing football amid a pandemic — limited practice time, no fans in the stands — there is the more common task of filling holes on the depth chart.
The defense added newcomers, some with solid credentials, to complement a returning core. But will they improve a unit that was among the Mountain West Conference’s worst last season?
Quarterback Nick Starkel, a graduate transfer from Arkansas, has experience and pedigree. But he never put together a full season in the SEC and has not officially been named the starter.
The run game will be a point of emphasis, but there’s a limited sample size among the current options.
What does it all suggest? Here are three reasons San Jose State will or won’t have a winning season in 2020:
Why they will
1. DEFENSE MAKES TANGIBLE IMPROVEMENT >> The defense, specifically the run defense, will determine how well the team fares. If the unit takes even a modest step forward, the Spartans’ chance to succeed increases astronomically.
Improving won’t be easy given how many contributors the Spartans lost. Linebackers Ethan Aguayo and Jesse Osuna finished their eligibility and Bobby Brown II opted not to play.
“Obviously, we need to be better against the run and we need to get creative and find ways to get to the quarterback,” coach Brent Brennan said.
Still, there’s some reason for optimism. The secondary could be a strength as Jay Lenard, a 2019 All-Mountain West honorable mention selection, Nehemiah Shelton and Tre Webb are back. The Spartans also add redshirt freshman Charlie Bostic III into the fold.
Three transfers who received first-team honors in their respective community college conferences last season — defensive linemen Jay Kakiva and Noah Wright and linebacker Dion Leonard —could provide an immediate impact, too.
2. STARKELSPARKLES>> Brennan has yet to name a starting quarterback, saying that Starkel and sophomore Nick Nash will play in the season opener Saturday night against Air Force.
That being said, Starkel is the favorite to receive the majority of the snaps.
If he excels, San Jose State could flourish.
In eight games (five starts) at Arkansas, Starkel completed 53.6 percent of his passes for 1,152 yards. But he threw 10 interceptions, including five in a stunning loss last season to San Jose State, and seven touchdowns.
An optimistic perspective is that Starkel, who has had flashes of success, will have an easier time dissecting Mountain West defenses than he did against rugged SEC competition.
At San Jose State, he also will have one of the conference’s best core of receivers, headlined by Tre Walker and Bailey Gaither. Walker had 1,161 yards receiving last season to lead the conference.
3. THE RUNNING GAME >> On Monday, Brennan emphasized that the Spartans did not run enough last season. He believes that a more effective ground attack would have led to three more victories and a winning record. The Spartans finished 5–7 overall and 2–6 in the Mountain West.
In the conference last season, San Jose State was dead last in rushing attempts per game (25.6) and the only team that didn’t average at least 100 rushing yards per game (89.4).
Sophomore Kairee Robinson, a former De La Salle star, will be tasked with improving those numbers. As a freshman, Robinson had 174 rushing yards on just 40 attempts. Senior Tyler Nevens and sophomore Isaiah Holiness are also should contribute.
The Spartans no longer have offensive linemen Troy Kowalski, Korey Mariboho and Quinn Oseland but return Jack Snyder, a 2019 All-Mountain West honorable mention pick and Campbell Trophy semifinalist.
Why they won’t
1. CAN’T STOP THE RUN >> If opponents continue to run at will against the Spartans, the prospects of a successful season are bleak, if not nonexistent.
The Spartans had one of the nation’s worst run defenses, allowing the sixth-most rushing yards per game in the FBS (232.1). With quarterback Josh Love gone, the Spartans might not have the same caliber of offensive firepower to compensate for major defensive shortcomings.
San Jose State’s run defense will be tested. The team’s first two opponents, Air Force and New Mexico, were among three Mountain West teams last season to average 200 or more rushing yards per game. Behind by its triple-option, Air Force averaged 298.5 rushing yards per game, second-best in the country.
UNLV, Boise State and Fresno State, also on the schedule, averaged at least 159 rushing yards per game.
2. QUARTERBACK CAROUSEL >> Brennan’s unwillingness to formally name Starkel or Nash the team’s QB1 might be nothing more than gamesmanship. But it could also be indicative of neither standing out enough to warrant the job.
“I think for this first game, you’ll see the two guys on the depth (chart),” Brennan said.
As the old adage goes, “If you have two quarterbacks, you have none.” Succeeding with two quarterbacks isn’t impossible, but it’s not conventional.
Starkel or Nash will need consistent reps to gain chemistry and confidence. And with only eight games on the schedule because of the pandemic, there isn’t a lot of time for that to happen, especially if they’re sharing snaps.
Nash played last season and is familiar with the receivers. But he attempted only 17 passes, far from enough to build onfield rapport.
3. CAN’T PRESSURE THE QUARTERBACK >> San Jose State had one of the conference’s better secondaries last season. They ranked second in the conference in passing yards allowed per game (211.7) and interceptions (16). The team also returns a strong core, headlined by Lenard.
If the Spartans’ defensive line can’t pressure the quarterback, the secondary will be moot because there will eventually be breakdowns.
In addition to its troubles defending the run last year, San Jose State couldn’t consistently put heat on quarterbacks. The Spartans tied for the secondfewest sacks in the conference (17). And Aguayo and Osuna, who combined for five sacks, have moved on.