STAYING POWER
Warriors have found their best closing five players and that could change everything this postseason
The Warriors have found their best closing five, and it’s a lineup that absolutely no one would have predicted even a few weeks ago.
Golden State’s win over the Suns on Tuesday night might have been the team’s best victory of the season, with the Warriors going on a 12-3 run in the final 150 seconds of the contest.
The Warriors’ run nearly coincided with coach Steve Kerr putting forward Juan Toscano-Anderson into the game, and it was highlighted by an open Jordan Poole 3-pointer that gave the Warriors their first lead since the first quarter with only 1:41 to play.
Golden State has been clunky in crunch time all season. They’re 1416 in games decided by five points or fewer, with a minus-8.2 net rating in the final five minutes of such tight games.
There are many reasons for those struggles. Stephen Curry can’t simply shoot over his defender, like a wing; Andrew Wiggins (save for last night) doesn’t play with enough force to be an alpha wing; and opposing teams don’t even guard Draymond Green.
But those three have far more positives than those listed negatives. Adding two sophomore wings — ToscanoAnderson and Poole — looked like it unlocked a few things for the Dubs.
If that is indeed the case, the Warriors could have a formidable and much-needed final punch for the playoffs. It’s a shame we won’t have but perhaps one game, Sunday’s matchup with the Grizzlies, to verify the hypothesis.
But here’s why I think Poole and JTA work with the core three Dubs:
One is on the court for offense, one is on the court for defense, but both have significantly improved their lesser category this season, and that makes the weapons.
Toscano-Anderson might not have a ton of NBA inexperience, but he’s 28 years old and has unmistakable savvy on the court. He’s the kind of player who positively affects play whenever he’s on the court. There’s some Draymond in him — yes, he’s defense-first with tremendous communication and the ability to guard five positions, but he’s
also an excellent screener, sharp cutter, and smart passer.
He’s received extended play, nearly 30 minutes per game, over the last 11 contests, and he’s shooting 37% from beyond the arc (2.5 attempts per game) and dishing out 4.5 assists.
A defensive ace who allows the Warriors to switch everything and cuts down the amount of space Green has to cover who can also knock down a 3-pointer or two and play point-forward in a pinch?
How was this guy on a two-way contract until last week?
Then there’s Poole, who is the Warriors’ second- or third-best 3-point shooter, depending on Wiggins’ performance that day.
Poole has the ball-handling skills to create his own shot as well as the range, the stroke, and the confidence to seriously space the floor for the Warriors — something that is desperately needed at all junctures of the game for the Dubs, but is seriously handy in lategame situations, when Curry faces double- and triple-teams but the Warriors have Green, a nonshooter, on the floor.
Poole’s issues have mostly been on the defense side. But he’s shown improvement on that end of the court, and amid four good defenders and in slower-game situations, the brain farts that often highlight his second-quarter minutes don’t seem to show up in the fourth.
It’s ironic, but Poole has proved himself to be more trustworthy in late-game situations than veteran Kent Bazemore, who has seen a lot of late-game action this season.
The basketball IQ and improving shot of JTA paired with the confidence and improved defense of Poole have played alongside Curry, Green, and Wiggins for only 16 minutes this season but in that time, they have posted a net rating (differential in points per 100 possessions) of 23.7 while assisting on 87% of field goals and posting an effective field-goal percentage of 72.
That might be small sample size noise, but the closing minutes of the Suns make me think this group has staying power.
At one point in the closing moments of Tuesday’s game, Phoenix quadrupleteamed Curry. It was by accident, but it perfectly encapsulated how much defensive attention Curry receives late in games.
So often when Curry is seeing multiple defenders, he passes the ball to Green, who executes a 4-on-3.
But with Green being, for the most part, an unwilling shooter this season, opponents have time to rotate once Curry no longer has the ball. It’s still a good play for the Warriors, but they have to be decisive.
By playing Toscano-Anderson
and Poole, the Warriors now have another sharp decision-maker and another shot-taker on each side of the floor.
Instead of a 4-on-3, if Curry just goes up the middle of the floor, he can create a 2-on-1 when the double-team comes, with either Green or JTA as the outlet man and Wiggins and Poole as the shooting threats off them.
Simplicity is excellence in late-game scenarios. Without Kevin Durant — someone who can rise and fire over anyone — the Warriors have struggled in the moments when their intricate offense can’t quite expose all of its layers.
Add in the excellent crunch-time defense the trifecta of Green, JTA, and Wiggins provide — they have a defensive rating of 90 in their last 32 fourthquarter minutes — and the Warriors might just have something cooking with this five-man unit late.
And if the Warriors really have figured out their late-game woes, then the entire calculous around this team changes heading into the postseason.