Making babies not trendy in California
Happy Valentine's Day, millennials.
Speaking of love, can you please help the economy and start having more babies?
Yes, we must talk of the business of romance. This lustful holiday is a great time for restaurant owners, chocolatiers and anybody selling anything in any shade of red. But with passion in the air, I must note one troubling trend: Young adults aren't making babies like they used to.
This isn't just a monetary headache for purveyors of baby care and youth-oriented gear. Procreation, or the lack thereof, is one of those longview demographic patterns that raises all sorts of questions regarding future education needs, the workforce, tax revenue and demand for homes or roads.
With that all in mind,
I filled my trusty spreadsheet with government demographic data to see what's going on with baby production — both in California and nationally.
The baby bust
California between 2018 and 2020 averaged 440,553 births per year. Yes, that was No. 1 among all states, ahead of Texas at 374,804 and New York at 219,038.
But, dear millennials, that big baby number hides worrisome shortfalls.
California's baby-making pace is down 15% from Gen X's 1999 output. Only nine states have fared worse so far this century, with Illinois in last place, off 23%, followed by Connecticut, down 21%, and Michigan, off 20%.
California's baby bust is far greater than the nationwide tumble, which saw births off 6% in this period. By the way, where did we see the biggest baby booms? North Dakota was up 36%, followed by two California rivals — Nevada, up 19%, and Florida, up 10%.
Or look at the Golden State's newborn shortage another way, measured by the “fertility rate” — births compared with the population of women 15 to 44 years old.
As the 21st century started, California was a baby-making machine — 69 births for every 1,000 women of childbearing age — eighth-highest among the states. In 1999, the top states were Utah at 89, Arizona at 76 and Texas at 74.
Then consider 2018-2020 as California fertility fell to ninth-lowest at 55 babies per 1,000 possible moms. The nation's best had pivoted to South Dakota at 70, North Dakota at 70 and Alaska at 68.
And California's 21% drop in fertility was topped only
by two states: Arizona, down 26%, and Utah, down 25%. Nationally, fertility was off 10%.
Money matters
What's driving fertility and births lower in many states? Sadly, I'm guessing it's money.
Babies are expensive, and households seem to be making children a financial choice. That's what my trusty spreadsheet — with the added help of state scorecards from U.S. News & World Report, WalletHub, Pew Foundation and Gallup — found when looking at state-level factors that might play into childbearing decisions.
Cost of living? The 10 priciest states (California is No. 3) saw baby-making dips running far above average since 1999 — 20% lower fertility and with 13% fewer births. That's basically double the U.S. decline.
My thought: Maybe in some not-toodistant future the nation will create or incentivize affordable child care.
Pay? It's a debate for another day, but women still bear the brunt of child care responsibilities. The 10 states with the highest women's pay, adjusted for the cost of living, also saw babymaking down more than the national norm: Fertility fell 13% with 9% fewer births.
My thought: Well-paid women seem less likely to have kids.
Livability? Families seek great places to live, right? Yet the 10 states found atop those much-debated quality-of-life rankings also had declining birthrates larger than the nationwide U.S. dip. Fertility in the 10 “mostlivable” states fell 12% with 8% fewer births.
My thought: High-ranked states are often costly places to live.
Education? You'd think baby-making would be popular where schools were better. Again, nope! The 10 states graded best for education had slightly above-par baby-making declines: fertility off 13% with 11% fewer births.
My thought: Remember, good schools are often found in pricier neighborhoods.
Health care? Great doctors and hospitals would seem to be a key draw for younger families. But the 10 states dubbed tops for medical care saw a 14% fall in fertility with 9% fewer births.
My thought: Great medicine can be costly.
So, I had to seek a higher power for a better answer. And I discovered baby-making and faith may be linked.
The 10 states ranked as “most religious” had minimal baby-making dips this century: just 2% less fertility and 4% fewer births.