CIA director: Putin `thinks he cannot afford to lose'
The current phase of the war in Ukraine, as Russia focuses on trying to capture the country's east and south, could prove at least as dangerous as Moscow's first failed attempt to quickly seize major northern cities and topple the government, the CIA director, William Burns, said Saturday.
The stakes are just as high in this phase, in large measure because President Vladimir Putin of Russia is “in a frame of mind that he thinks he cannot afford to lose,” Burns said.
Burns, a former U.S. ambassador to Russia, has studied Putin for decades and in recent appearances has spoken about the risks the Russian president is willing to take to exert control over Ukraine.
“He's convinced right now that doubling down still will enable him to make progress,” Burns said, speaking at an event in Washington sponsored by The Financial Times.
Burns repeatedly praised Ukraine's fierce resistance to the Russian invasion, arguing that Putin's biggest mistake so far in the war was to underestimate the Ukrainians' will to fight and their ability to defend themselves.
Burns did not discuss in detail the U.S. intelligence provided to the Ukrainians. Senior U.S. officials have said
U.S. intelligence had helped Ukrainian forces target high-ranking enemy officers and sink Russia's flagship in the Black Sea.
But Burns said Ukrainians have supplemented the information they have received from U.S. intelligence with their own knowledge and insights.
“It's a big mistake to underestimate the significant intelligence capabilities that the Ukrainians themselves have,” Burns said. “This is their country. They have a lot more information than we do.”
Burns said China was closely monitoring the events in Ukraine, both the country's strong resistance and the economic sanctions imposed on Russia by the international community.
The Russian invasion has not eroded the ambitions of President Xi Jinping of China to take control of Taiwan, he said. But Xi and other Chinese leaders, he added, are trying to look carefully at what lessons to “draw from Ukraine about their own ambitions and Taiwan.”
Burns said the CIA spends a lot of time focusing on China's reaction to the war in Ukraine and Beijing's relationship with Moscow. He suggested that driving a wedge between the two countries would not be easy.
“I would not underestimate Xi Jinping's commitment to his partnership with Putin's Russia,” Burns said.