Gas prices could help GOP win House control

If control of the House of Representatives flips to the Republicans this fall, economist Jim Doti believes he found the issue driving political change: the gas pump.

Chapman University's veteran economic forecaster was trying to see which historic economic, demographic or voting patterns factors might provide numerical hints for November's midterm elections in which control of the House is at stake.

Doti's formula suggests Republicans will gain control of the House by flipping 53 of the legislative body's 435 seats to the GOP side of the political aisle in November. The flip isn't terribly stunning, considering the party controlling the White House has lost an average 27 seats in midterms since World War II. And over the Fourth of July weekend, forecasters at fivethirtyeight.com gave the GOP an 87% chance of winning the House in the first fall projection for 2022.

Political track records are not foolproof prognostications of future election results. But Doti was startled to discover the pivotal vote-changer that's bad news for President Joe Biden and his Democrats: record-high gasoline prices.

“First of all, let me say that this was a big surprise to me,” Doti says.

Price points

Pain at the pump was not on Doti's mind when he started the research with fellow Chapman professor Fadel Lawandy. He was betting big vote swings followed inflation, which in 2022 is running at 40-year highs.

But when the professors looked at voting patterns versus traditional measures of the cost of living, such as the consumer price index, Doti said, “I found nothing, even when you look at some of our high inflationary periods.”

So gasoline prices were input into his formula, and to the professors' astonishment, fuel inflation was a significant political driver. The out-of-power party gained more House midterm seats when gasoline was pricier.

Equally noteworthy were the only two times the party in the White House grew its political base in the House at the midterms — Bill Clinton's second term (1998) and George W. Bush's first term (2002).

Gas prices were falling in both of those outlier periods.

So why is gasoline — a relatively modest expense for many Americans — such a political flashpoint? It's the simplicity of the economic measurement.

“People every week fill the tank. They see these big prices,” Doti says. “It's not like reading the CPI. Or reading the Wall Street Journal. It's affecting their pocketbook, and they get it. They're agitated.”

Bad start

Doti's research shows the Democrats start the midterm political season in a weak position.