Political Polarization Threatens Transition to Electric Vehicles

The urgent global effort to phase out internal combustion vehicles cannot possibly succeed without international cooperation, but many U.S. consumers are reluctant to purchase electric vehicles. Polling statistics indicate that attitudes about EVs have been caught up in the extreme divisiveness that characterizes our national politics, with Democrats far more receptive to EVs than Republicans. If the partisan disparity persists, widespread unwillingness to purchase EVs could seriously undermine environmental policies designed to accelerate EV adoption. There are also strong indications that public support for aggressive tailpipe regulations is declining.

A July 13th report from the Pew Research Center provides valuable insight into American attitudes about EVs. According to the report, half of U.S. adults are not too likely or not at all likely to purchase an EV. Among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, 56% are somewhat or very likely to purchase an EV, and just 30% are somewhat or very unlikely. Among Republicans and independent voters who lean Republican, the portion of reluctant consumers is 70%, with only 20% somewhat or very likely to purchase an EV. Rural adults are also quite skeptical about EVs, with 65% not too or not at all likely to go electric. Just 38% of U.S. adults are currently willing to purchase an EV, down four percentage points since May of 2022.

California is leading a coalition of progressive states that plans to phase out internal combustion vehicles, restricting the sale of new vehicles to battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids by 2035. There appears to be growing opposition to this mandatory approach, and Republicans are far more resistant than Democrats. According to the report, phasing out the sale of new gasoline vehicles by 2035 is opposed by 59% of U.S. adults, with opposition up eight percentage points since April of 2021. Opposition from Republicans and Republicanleaning independents has grown from 76% to 84% during the same period, and support from Democrats and independents who lean Democratic has declined from 68% to 64%.

There is currently a lot of cautious speculation about the likely pace of EV adoption in the years ahead. The stringency of the Environmental Protection Agency’s latest proposal regulating tailpipe emissions is calibrated with an optimistic assumption that fully electric vehicles will make up two thirds of light duty auto sales by 2032. It seems unlikely that EV adoption will advance that rapidly if attitudes for and against EVs continue to be aligned with our two major political parties, neither of which appears interested in finding common ground. Support for EVs has been a centerpiece of the Biden Administration’s climate agenda, and Donald Trump is exploiting the emotional issue as he campaigns for president, speaking out boldly against EVs. Absent a bipartisan consensus that EVs are an appropriate, effective response to the worsening climate crisis, it is hard to imagine EV market share advancing beyond 50% before 2032.

A new generation of vastly improved EV batteries and the emergence of adequate charging infrastructure will alter the debate about the efficacy of EVs, but partisan attitudes could easily become entrenched. The cars and trucks we choose to drive are powerful symbols of our personal identities, and Republican antipathy to electric vehicles will be difficult to reverse.