Saudi Arabia warns U.S. that Israeli invasion of Gaza could be catastrophic
Saudi officials have firmly warned the United States in recent days that an Israeli ground incursion into the Gaza Strip could be catastrophic for the Middle East.
Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn., a member of the Armed Services Committee, was one of 10 senators who met last weekend with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the kingdom's de facto ruler, in Riyadh, the Saudi capital.
“The Saudi leadership was hopeful that a ground operation could be avoided for reasons of stability as well as the loss of life,” Blumenthal said Thursday. Saudi officials warned it would be “extremely harmful,” he said.
Senior Saudi officials have delivered even more forceful exhortations to their American counterparts in multiple conversations, raising their concerns that a ground invasion could turn into a disaster for the entire region, according to one Saudi official and a second person with knowledge of the discussions.
The exchanges came as tensions rippled outward from Gaza. Essentials such as water and fuel are increasingly scarce as Israel bombards and besieges the enclave in response to the Oct. 7 attack on Israel by Hamas, the armed Palestinian group that rules Gaza.
One Biden administration official said it was evident that the Saudis did not want an Israeli invasion of Gaza. The U.S. official, as well as the Saudi official and the person familiar with the Saudi warnings, asked not to be named because of the sensitivity of the matter.
The United States has repeatedly asserted Israel's right to self-defense since the Hamas attack that killed more than 1,400 people in Israel.
“Let there be no doubt,” President Joe Biden said recently. “The United States has Israel's back.”
At the same time, Biden asked Israel to delay the invasion, U.S. officials have said, for a range of reasons, including buying more time for hostage negotiations, getting more humanitarian aid into Gaza and doing better war planning. There are signs, too, that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel is hesitant about an invasion.
The White House declined to comment.
In a call this week, Crown Prince Mohammed and Biden “agreed on pursuing broader diplomatic efforts to maintain stability across the region and prevent the conflict from expanding,” the White House said in a statement Tuesday, which did not mention discussions about a ground invasion.
Saudi officials said they would only be willing to consider normalization with Israel in exchange for benefits to be delivered by the United States: a U.S.-Saudi mutual defense pact, American support for a Saudi civilian nuclear program and more U.S. weapons sales.
U.S. and Saudi officials also held discussions about concessions that Israel might need to make to the Palestinians. But in an interview with Fox News last month, Crown Prince Mohammed seemed to signal that they might fall short of Palestinian statehood.
Then Hamas attacked Israel and Israel responded by laying siege to the more than 2 million Palestinians who live in Gaza, cutting off water and electricity and bombarding the enclave with airstrikes.
Thursday, Gaza's Health Ministry released the names of 6,747 people it said had been killed since the war began, adding that another 281 bodies had yet to be identified.
Furious protesters have taken to the streets across the Middle East to express solidarity with the Palestinians, condemning Israel and the United States. Saudi officials denounced Israel's siege and called for a cease-fire — even as they tried to keep the kingdom's national narrative focused on the prince's plans to transform Saudi Arabia into a global business hub.
Yet in private meetings and calls with U.S. officials, Saudi leaders have presented a far blunter message. The prince and other Saudi officials struck an ominous tone with the Senate delegation, said Blumenthal and Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., who helped organize the visit.
The prince “understands that this was an act of terror,” Graham said, referring to the Hamas attack on Israel. “But he would like a measured response that won't cascade into a longer and deeper conflict.”
Scholars who study Hamas have warned that any attempt to eliminate the group, as Israel has vowed to do, could plant the seeds for more violence and extremism, deepening Palestinian feelings of subjugation under Israeli occupation and control.
An invasion also could fuel unrest in neighboring countries and could be particularly destabilizing for governments already struggling to contain discontent over economic pain or political repression, such as Bahrain, Egypt and Jordan.
Iran has long backed Hamas and Iranbacked regional militias hostile to Israel have threatened to open new fronts in the war, depending on Israel's military response. Saudi Arabia is a potential target.
Since the war began, Saudi officials have returned to specific calls for a substantive Israeli-Palestinian peace process and for the creation of a Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital.
Senators said they left Riyadh with the impression that Saudi leaders still would like to recognize Israel when the right moment arrives.
U.S. and Israeli officials often frame normalization as a way to help contain Iran.
Iran is Saudi Arabia's most prominent regional rival. Crown Prince Mohammed launched a disastrous Saudi-led military intervention in Yemen in 2015 aiming to oust the Iran-backed Houthi rebels who nonetheless remain firmly in power there.
But the crown prince, racing to diversify the kingdom's oil-dependent economy, has recently pursued a less aggressive approach and sought to build bridges. This year, he reestablished diplomatic ties with Iran. Blumenthal, however, said that a Saudi Arabia-Israel pact seemed unlikely before Israel “concludes its operation.”
During the call Tuesday, Crown Prince Mohammed and Biden “affirmed the importance of working toward a sustainable peace between Israelis and Palestinians as soon as the crisis subsides,” the White House said in its statement.
Crown Prince Mohammed stressed the urgent need to halt military operations and return to a peace process to ensure that the Palestinians “obtain their legitimate rights,” the Saudi government said in its own statement. Neither statement mentioned a Palestinian state.
The potential deal that Saudi officials had been working on before the war included a path to a state for the Palestinians, the person with knowledge of the talks said.