Employers continue to add to labor force

275,000 people take new positions in February; unemployment up to 3.9%

If the economy is slowing down, nobody told the labor market.

Employers added 275,000 jobs in February, the Labor Department reported Friday, in another month that exceeded expectations even as the unemployment rate rose.

It was the third consecutive month of gains above 200,000 and the 38th consecutive month of growth — fresh evidence that four years after going into pandemic shutdowns, America's jobs engine still has plenty of steam.

“We've been expecting a slowdown in the labor market, a more material loosening in conditions, but we're just not seeing that,” said Rubeela Farooqi, chief economist at High Frequency Economics.

Previously reported figures for December and January were revised downward by a total of 167,000, reflecting the higher degree of statistical volatility in the winter months. That does not disrupt a picture of consistent, robust increases.

At the same time, the unemployment rate, based on a survey of households rather than businesses, increased to a two-year high of 3.9%. The increase from 3.7% in January was driven by people losing or leaving jobs as well as those entering the labor force to look for work.

A more expansive measure of slack labor market conditions, which includes people working part time who would rather work full time, has been steadily rising and now stands at 7.3%.

In a positive sign, the labor force participation rate for people in their prime working years — ages 25 to 54 — jumped to 83.5%, matching a level from last year that was the highest since the early 2000s. The participation rate for those older than 55 remains markedly below its prepandemic level, potentially in part because the booming housing and stock markets have allowed more people to retire.

Average hourly earnings rose 4.3% over the year. Wages have outpaced prices since May, though the pace of increases has been fading.

“We've recently seen gains in real wages and that's encouraged people to reenter the labor market, and that's a good development for workers,” said Kory Kantenga, a senior economist at job search website LinkedIn.

As wage growth slows, he said, the likelihood that more people will start looking for work falls.

As late as the fall, economists were predicting much more modest employment increases, with hiring concentrated in a few industries. Some pandemic-inflated industries have shed jobs, but expected downturns in sectors such as construction have not materialized.

The last few months have been studded with strong economic data, prompting analysts surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics to raise their forecasts for gross domestic product and lower their expectations for the trajectory of unemployment. Inflation has eased, leading the Federal Reserve to telegraph its plans for interest rate cuts sometime

this year, which many see as insurance should the job market stumble.

Mervin Jebaraj, director of the Center for Business and Economic Research at the University of Arkansas, helped tabulate the survey responses. He said the mood was buoyed partly by fading trepidation over federal government shutdowns and draconian budget cuts, after several close calls since the fall. And there's no harm, he said, in a tamer but more sustainable pace.

“If we gain 150,000 jobs every month this year, that would still be an incredible year, but it would still be cooling compared to last year,” Jebaraj said. “And maybe we want both things.”

Moreover, some of the cooling may have allowed for more durable growth. As extreme labor shortages eased and the wave of job quitting subsided, employers

unable to win bidding wars for workers have had an easier time filling positions. And as people stick around longer, productivity has improved, which makes it easier to pay more without increasing prices.

Health care and government again led the payroll gains in February, while construction continued its steady increase. Retail, restaurants, transportation and warehousing, which have been flat to negative in recent months, picked up.

No major industries lost a substantial number of jobs. High interest rates continue to suppress manufacturing, however, while credit intermediation continued its downward slide — that sector, which mostly includes commercial banking, has lost about 123,000 jobs since early 2021.

Employee confidence, as measured by company rating

website Glassdoor, has been falling steadily as layoffs by tech and media companies have grabbed headlines. That is especially true in white-collar professions such as human resources and consulting, while those in occupations that require working in person — such as health care, construction and manufacturing — are more upbeat.

“It is a two-track labor market,” said Aaron Terrazas, Glassdoor's chief economist, noting that job searches are taking longer for people with graduate degrees. “For skilled workers in risk-intensive industries, anyone who's been laid off is having a hard time finding new jobs, whereas if you're a blue-collar or frontline service worker, it's still competitive.”

Those having a hard time finding steady employment turn increasingly to gig work, Terrazas noted,

which is not picked up in the payrolls data.

The path forward for the labor market, which few have managed to accurately predict, remains hazy. Every seeming threat so far — including wars, substantial interest rate increases and bank collapses — has been met with unflappability.

Thomas Simons, senior economist at investment banking firm Jefferies, thinks the economy will look weaker at the end of the year than it does now, despite the lack of any obvious potholes.

“It's been 30-plus years since we've had an economic cycle like this, where we are waiting for enough drag to coalesce between different sectors to take the whole number down,” Simons said. “I still believe it's unlikely that it's going to continue indefinitely, even without a discrete catalyst.”