Oscars mark last hurrah for `Barbenheimer'
Today's 96th Academy Awards ceremony is expected to serve as a culmination of last summer's “Barbenheimer” phenomenon, with Christopher Nolan's three-hour historical drama about J. Robert Oppenheimer — a nearly $1 billion hit — the clear favorite to win best picture.
But the expected toast to this achievement of commercial event cinema comes at an uncertain time for Hollywood as the domestic box office this year is off to a shaky start.
While some 2024 releases, such as Paramount Pictures' reggae biopic “Bob Marley: One Love” and the musical reboot of “Mean Girls,” have posted decent results, others — including Sony Pictures' superhero disaster “Madame Web” and Apple's spy thriller “Argylle” — tanked spectacularly.
It wasn't until last weekend that Warner Bros. and Legendary's “Dune: Part Two” became the first film in four months to open above $80 million, giving the theater industry a muchneeded boost. Prior to the highly anticipated arrival of Denis Villeneuve's latest sci-fi spectacle, domestic box office revenue was down 20% compared to the same period last year, according to data firm Comscore.
The year-over-year deficit now stands at 13% with another prospective hit, Universal Pictures' and DreamWorks Animation's “Kung Fu Panda 4,” in release this weekend. But a thinned-out 2024 release calendar, hobbled by last year's Hollywood writers' and actors' strikes, could spell trouble for studios and exhibitors in the months ahead.
The prolonged, overlapping work stoppages prompted studios to push at least a dozen pictures to 2025 from this year, including the eighth installment in Paramount's “Mission: Impossible” franchise and Disney's liveaction remake of “Snow White.” Analysts estimate that full-year box office revenue for 2024 will fall somewhere between $8 billion and $8.5 billion in the United States and Canada, which would be down from 2023's $9 billion domestic haul, stalling the momentum of the industry's postpandemic recovery.
Theatrical had been on a steady decline even before the COVID-19 pandemic shut down multiplexes, due to changing audience habits and rising competition from streaming, premium TV and video games.
“Coming out of winter now, which was always looking like the worst part of all of this following the strikes, there's a little bit more optimism,” said Shawn Robbins, chief analyst at Boxoffice Pro. “But overall the year doesn't have those types of films where you look at the calendar and you say, `Here's an automatic ($300 million) or $400 million box office domestic grosser.'”
It's easy then to understand why Hollywood is looking forward this weekend to reliving the glory days of “Barbenheimer,” the surprise double feature that catapulted the North American box office to pre-pandemic heights. Executives at Oscars broadcaster ABC undoubtedly are hoping that the films' outsize popularity will deliver good ratings — if their promise of a showstopping live performance of Ryan Gosling's “Barbie” anthem “I'm Just Ken” during the Jimmy Kimmelhosted telecast is any indication.
The pair of blockbusters, which have grossed more than $965 million combined in the United States and Canada (and $2.4 billion globally), have managed to translate their commercial success to awards recognition, collecting a total of 21 Oscar nominations. “Oppenheimer” leads the pack with 13 nods, while Greta Gerwig's “Barbie” scored eight. Both films are nominated for multiple acting prizes as well as best picture.
“These two movies were really a cultural phenomenon and that phenomenon took place in the theaters,” said Michael O'Leary, president of the National Assn. of Theatre Owners.
It's not unusual for mega-hit movies to land best picture nominations. Last year saw Disney's motion-capture epic “Avatar: The Way of Water” and Paramount Pictures' high-flying sequel “Top Gun: Maverick” secure best picture nods after earning a combined $1.4 billion at the domestic box office.
But for the first time in more than two decades, a box-office smash with a domestic lifetime gross of more than $200 million — “Oppenheimer” — might actually claim the top prize.