Russians know Putin will win vote, but worry what comes next
Maria and her husband, Alexander, are certain that President Vladimir Putin will secure a fifth term as Russia's leader in the presidential election this weekend.
But the couple, who live in Moscow with their three children, are not so sure about what will come after that. Foremost in their minds are fears that Putin, emboldened by winning a new six-year term, might declare another mobilization for soldiers to fight in Ukraine. Alexander, 38, who left Russia shortly after Putin announced the first mobilization in September 2022 but recently returned, is considering leaving the country again, his wife said.
“I only hear about mobilization — that there is a planned offensive for the summer and that troops need rotation,” Maria, 34, said in a WhatsApp exchange. She declined to allow the couple's family name to be used, fearing repercussions from the government.
Many Russians have been worrying about a multitude of issues before the vote, which started Friday and takes place over three days. Though Russian authorities have denied that another mobilization for the war is on the way, a sense of unease persists.
The concerns appear to be grounded in the possibility that Putin will use his unfettered power to make changes he avoided before the vote. Denis Volkov, director of the Levada Center, one of the few independent pollsters in Russia, said these anxieties were still primarily felt by the minority of Russians who oppose the government.
While a potential mobilization remains the biggest cause of concern, there is unease over finances and the economy as well. Some Russians worry that the ruble, which has been propped up by the government after plunging last year, might be allowed to depreciate again, raising the cost of imports. Businesspeople worry about higher taxes, and opposition activists expect more crackdowns on dissent.
“People are very anxious,” said Nina Khrushcheva, a professor of international affairs at the New School in New York City who regularly visits Russia. “Uncertainty is the worst, as much as Russian people are used to uncertainty.”
The worries reflect a current mood in Russia, where many have learned to hope for the best but expect the worst. The uncertainty has been exacerbated by a government that experts say has become increasingly authoritarian.
After more than two decades in power, Putin is not restrained by an opposition party in parliament or a strong civil society. He is therefore relatively free to act as he pleases.
Some experts say the Kremlin could use the results of the vote — expected to be a landslide victory for Putin — to crack down further on dissent and escalate the war in Ukraine, which was intended to be a brisk “special military operation” but has turned into a slog that has caused hundreds of thousands of casualties.
In Russia, elections are managed tightly by the Kremlin through its almost total control of the media and state enterprises, where workers are often pressured to vote. The electoral machine filters out unwanted candidates, and opposition activists have either been forced to flee or have ended up in Russian prisons. The country's most prominent dissident, Alexei Navalny, died last month in the penal colony in the Arctic where he had been imprisoned.
While the outcome of the vote is not in question, Russians have still been preoccupied by the process. The vote will be the first since Putin's decision to invade Ukraine in February 2022.
A Moscow consultant who works with Russian businesses said some of his clients had deliberately scheduled new stock offerings on the Moscow exchange so that they would happen in what they expected to be a relatively quiet period before the vote. He requested anonymity to avoid jeopardizing his relationship with his clients.
Russian consumers also rushed to buy cars at the beginning of the year, after auto market analysts suggested that the period before the elections might be the best time to buy because the ruble might be devalued once the vote is over.
The number of new cars sold in Russia in January and February jumped more than 80% compared with the same period last year, according to Avtostat, a news website about the Russian auto industry.
Businesses have been worried that the government will raise taxes after the vote. On Wednesday, Putin said that the government would draft new tax rules for individuals and private entities, and experts said that this most likely meant taxes would rise for both groups.
Yevgeny Nadorshin, chief economist at the PF Capital consulting company in Moscow, said companies were particularly concerned about a rise in taxes and higher labor costs. “That would jeopardize Russia's competitiveness,” he said.
Nadorshin also noted the widespread rumors of another mobilization of troops, which, if it happened, could further restrict the labor market for businesses, he said.
Volkov, of the Levada Center, said most Russians, after the initial shock of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the mobilization that followed seven months later, adapted to the new world. Much of that was the result of government efforts to raise morale by making sure the country's economy stayed healthy and by injecting money into its industrial sector.
“There has been a serious redistribution of resources in favor of the majority, who feel that they can now live a normal life without getting directly engaged in the war,” he said, referring to salary increases for factory workers and to various social payouts.