Reasons for optimism, pessimism right now
SAN FRANCISCO » After the Giants blew their six-run lead Tuesday night, they seemed destined for their sixth straight loss. Thanks to Joc Pederson, they staved off the inevitable questions that would have accompanied a season-long skid and rode that momentum into a series win over the Mets to finish off the home stand.
The Giants are 24-19 and in third place in the NL West, the same position they were in this time last year. There are obvious signs for optimism, particularly after salvaging the final two games of their home stand. But the same concerns that were raised as they headed toward that sixth straight loss remain. It’s clear that this team isn’t the same one that won 107 games last year, and nobody could expect them to be.
So, just past the quarter mark of the season, as the Giants embark on a 10game East Coast swing that begins Friday in Cincinnati, let’s take a look at the reasons for optimism and pessimism the club has provided.
PESSIMISM: DEFENSIVE ISSUES » At some point, what appears to be bad luck can simply be explained by poor execution.
With an increasing sample size and numerous examples of shoddy fielding over the six-game home stand, the Giants’ poor run prevention increasingly appears to be a problem that needs addressing, rather than a worm burner here and a Texas Leaguer there.
“We’re just not making enough plays,” manager Gabe Kapler said. “Nobody expects us to win Gold Gloves because it’s not the type of roster we are (and) it’s not the type of team that we’ve been, but we definitely need to make more plays that we’re making.”
The pitching staff is home to the unluckiest starter in the majors so far this season in Alex Cobb (a 4.50 gap between his actual 6.25 ERA and his expected 1.75 ERA), San Francisco’s scheduled starter Sunday against the Reds. Take a wider view and the problem becomes more glaring.
No pitching staff in the majors has a wider chasm between its ERA and its FIP (fielding independent pitching) than the Giants. Their 4.43 staff ERA is the sixthhighest in the majors, while their 3.39 FIP ranks thirdlowest.
The innovative techniques deployed by defensive guru Kai Correa, San Francisco’s bench coach, helped the Giants become one of the strongest runprevention units in the majors last season. This season, however, has been a
different story.
The Giants were the fifthbest defensive team in the majors last season, according to Fangraphs’ Outs Above Average metric, and ranked ninth in defensive value. Their ranks this year: fourth-worst in OAA (minus-14) and dead last in defensive fWAR (minus-16.2).
The issues were no more glaring than during the Mets’ seven-run eighth inning against Tyler Rogers, when the submariner induced six ground balls yet recorded only one out. Cobb’s last start was blown up by two infield singles and a pop fly that bounced fair in front of Darin Ruf, who crashed into the stands.
“We can always get tighter,” Kapler said. “We
can always be more on top of base runners. We can always be more on top of our defensive positioning. We can always be completing plays better. I think there’s room for improvement there.”
Ruf and Wilmer Flores have been the Giants’ worst two defenders, according to Baseball Savant’s Outs Above Average metric, so it’s worth noting that both players have been forced on to the field by injuries. Evan Longoria’s recent return to third base should provide an upgrade there, while Ruf will be spared less time in the outfield once Austin Slater returns from a wrist injury.
VERSION OF HIMSELF » From his perch on the top step of the dugout, Kapler gets a unique perspective on each of his hitter’s preparations before they step in to the on-deck circle. On Mike Yastrzemski, Kapler provided an eloquent observation.
“He has this thing he does … where he stands on the top steps and gets locked in to the pitcher,” Kapler said. “Kind of like a cat chasing prey.”
The 33-year-old outfielder went from an age-30 breakout as a rookie in 2019, to receiving MVP votes in 2020, to an almost-non-factor in 2021. It’s almost miraculous the Giants won 107 games with the production (or lack thereof) they received from one of their most important hitters.
By all indications, the old Yastrzemski is back — and locked in — this season.
Riding a nine-game hitting streak, Yastrzemski has raised his OPS to .909, including an on-base percentage of .409, sixth in the majors among players with at least 100 at-bats. His weighted on-base average (.398) ranks 12th in MLB and just beats out Joc Pederson for the best on the team. By fWAR and bWAR, no position player on the Giants has been more valuable.
Recently, Kapler listed a few veterans that the Giants need to get production “to get where we want to go.” He mentioned Brandon Crawford, Brandon Belt, Evan Longoria and Pederson. “Mike Yastrzemski is in there, too,” he added.
The Giants are still waiting on Crawford to heat up. Belt and Longoria have had their moments in limited playing time but have been sidelined too often. Pederson showed why the Giants signed him with his torrid month of April and his four home runs the past two games.
Yastrzemski could be San Francisco’s X-factor.
What gives Kapler the most confidence in declaring Yastrzemski back to his old form has been his approach and demeanor at the plate, not just over his hitting streak but all season. Yastrzemski, for what it’s worth, credited his time on the COVID IL with giving him a mental reset — the numbers bare it out — and faulted last season’s struggles on a hit-by-pitch in spring training that never allowed him to get comfortable in the batter’s box.
“With Yaz, his key is calm and poise at the plate,” Kapler said.