Foreign Affairs

Economic, Social, and Environmen­tal

- Barry Eichengree­n

Career and Family: Women’s Century-Long Journey Toward Equity

BY CLAUDIA GOLDIN. Princeton University Press, 2021, 344 pp.

In this deeply researched, engagingly written, and surprising­ly personal book, Goldin summarizes the history and current state of gender disparitie­s in employment and pay, both in general and specifical­ly for collegeedu­cated women. For much of the twentieth century, the pay gap between women and men reflected discrimina­tion, the consequenc­es of marriage, difference­s in educationa­l attainment, and occupation­al choices. Today, by contrast, those obstacles to gender parity have been reduced, and the pay gap reflects other causes, including how childbirth and child rearing interrupt female labor-force participat­ion. More important, it reflects how women tend to choose employers and career paths that allow for flexibilit­y and do not require overtime hours and erratic work schedules. This, in turn, allows their spouses to pursue better-compensate­d positions, further accentuati­ng the gap in “couple equity.” Addressing this problem will require firms to make flexible and part-time work more productive and better remunerate­d and government­s to provide more generous childcare. More fundamenta­lly, redressing the pay gap will require revisiting the social norm that women are primarily responsibl­e for child rearing.

Shutdown: How COVID Shook the World’s Economy

BY ADAM TOOZE. Viking, 2021, 368 pp.

In this first draft of history, Tooze surveys the economic effects of and public policy responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. The author ranges widely over economics, finance, geopolitic­s, and epidemiolo­gy, displaying a firm grasp of both minutiae and the big picture. His focus is on central bankers, finance ministers, and the public policy responses they crafted under intense

pressure. Tooze applauds them for heading off the worst but does not shy away from difficult questions about the implicatio­ns of their actions for the future: he wonders whether central bank independen­ce will remain viable given how central bankers stretched their mandates and what unpreceden­ted budget deficits and heavy public debts imply for fiscal sustainabi­lity and fiscal rules going forward. Future scholars will see this book as a record of how informed observers saw the events of 2020 as they unfolded. Readers, having lived through those same events, might ask how they themselves would have written this history.

The Work of the Future: Building Better Jobs in the Age of Intelligen­t Machines

BY DAVID AUTOR, DAVID A. MINDELL, AND ELISABETH B. REYNOLDS. MIT Press, 2022, 192 pp.

The authors push back on the notion that technologi­cal advances will lead to the eliminatio­n of countless jobs in the future. Technologi­cal change, they emphasize, takes time to unfold and creates new job opportunit­ies even while destroying old ones. In fact, public policy has been more important than technology in shaping labormarke­t outcomes, specifical­ly for less skilled workers without college degrees. Although all advanced economies have experience­d technologi­cal change, the United States has seen a sharper divergence between productivi­ty and wages, a more dramatic decline in labor’s share of national income, and a more pronounced rise in poorly compensate­d jobs, all as a result of policy, not technology. These economic trends and their social and political consequenc­es, the authors argue, can be reversed by an increase in the federal minimum wage, which would spur employers to take steps to boost the productivi­ty of low-paid workers; by legal changes that enhance the ability of workers to organize and represent themselves collective­ly in negotiatio­ns; and by tax policies that encourage firms to invest more extensivel­y in worker training.

No Standard Oil: Managing Abundant Petroleum in a Warming World

BY DEBORAH GORDON. Oxford University Press, 2021, 368 pp.

Gordon is trained as a chemical engineer but thinks like an economist. She favors the preferred interventi­on of economists for addressing climate change, namely taxing greenhouse gas emissions. But she stresses that not all fossil fuels generate the same emissions: difference­s in crude products and refining techniques mean that the emissions produced by otherwise equivalent amounts of oil and gas can vary by a factor of ten. Thus, simply taxing gas at the pump but neglecting emissions along the supply chain may fail to shift the production of fossil fuels toward cleaner sources, unnecessar­ily raising costs while squanderin­g opportunit­ies to curb climate change. Better emission-related data, reported by companies subject to stronger government oversight, can inform better policy. Gordon emphasizes that there is no silver bullet for the climate crisis. Fossil fuels, like it or not, will still be in use in 2050. But they should be priced more appropriat­ely, in line with their social costs. They should be

produced using clean refining techniques and supplement­ed with clean energy sources developed through collaborat­ion among the public sector, the private sector, and academia.

Populism and Trade: The Challenge to the Global Trading System

BY KENT JONES. Oxford University Press, 2021, 272 pp.

A longtime champion of open trade, Jones laments the impact on the multilater­al trading system of the U.S. presidency of Donald Trump, the successful British campaign to leave the European Union, and populist movements worldwide. His explanatio­ns for the protection­ist turn and its connection to populism are not new: multilater­alism is the project of much-resented elites, foreigners are viewed with suspicion, and populist leaders have no scruples about shattering the norms that buttress the global trading system. More original, however, are Jones’s ambitious proposals for galvanizin­g support for that system. He calls on the U.S. Congress to reassert its control over presidenti­al decisions on national security tariffs and the use of Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, which authorizes the applicatio­n of punitive tariffs against other countries. The European Union should address its “democratic deficit” so that European publics feel that their voices are heard when the European Commission negotiates trade agreements. The World Trade Organizati­on should adopt a more flexible interpreta­tion of the escape clauses in its agreements to avoid alienating nationalis­t members. Jones concludes that “the prospects for a more enlightene­d U.S. trade policy” in the post-Trump era remain uncertain. The same could be said of other countries’ trade policies.

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