Looking ahead
Here are our bold predictions for men’s NCAA tourney Sweet 16
To pick No. 1 Connecticut to beat No. 5 San Diego State and reach the Elite Eight? That’s not very bold. To predict that coach Dan Hurley will crack a smile? Now that’s bold.
The Sweet 16 of the NCAA men’s tournament begins on Thursday with East and West region semifinals featuring the Huskies and fellow No. 1 seed North Carolina, which seems headed for a shootout against No. 4 Alabama. Also on Thursday, No. 2 Arizona faces No. 6 Clemson and No. 2 Iowa State plays No. 3 Illinois.
On Friday, No. 2 Marquette takes on No. 11 North Carolina State and No. 1 Houston plays No. 4 Duke in the South Region, while No. 1 Purdue meets No. 5 Gonzaga and No. 2 Tennessee plays No. 3 Creighton in the Midwest.
Now’s the time for teams to make that championship push. It’s also time to be bold.
Here are USA TODAY Sports’ bold predictions for this week’s Sweet 16:
All the No. 1 seeds will reach the Final Four.
Eddie Timanus is already on record predicting this on his expert *snort* bracket, so he backs it up here this prediction. It might not seem very bold, but in the 64-team era it’s only happened once in 2008.
Three of the four have breezed through up to this point, but none of them have an easy path ahead. History and the odds say at least one of them won’t make it, but we’re all about being bold here.
Duke will beat Houston.
But should a No. 1 fall? Which Duke squad shows up, the one that played listlessly against No. 13 Vermont (64-47) or the one that played with high energy and enthusiasm in a dominant win against No. 12 James Madison (93-55)?
If it’s the latter, the No. 4 Blue Devils have the talent and depth to take down an opponent that struggled amid some major foul trouble to put down No. 9 Texas A&M in overtime (100-95).
The big keys are continued excellence from 3-point range from guards Jared McCain and Tyrese Proctor, who went a combined 12 of 21 from deep against the Dukes, and to keep big man Kyle Filipowski involved after his slow start to the postseason.
Dan Hurley will be a happy person.
Hurley’s been on a quest to find something wrong with the defending national champions. Blowouts of No. 16 Stetson (91-52) and No. 9 Northwestern (75-58) have left him picking on the Huskies’ performance in the second half, which makes sense given that UConn led at halftime by 33 and 22 points, respectively.
Here’s maybe the boldest prediction of March Madness: Thursday night’s rematch of last year’s title game against San Diego State will actually make Hurley beam as his team sends yet another opponent packing by a double-digit margin. The Huskies’ eight tournament wins in a row have come by an average of 22 points.
Alabama and North Carolina will require a second official scorer.
OK, this may be a bit of exaggeration. But given the pace that the Crimson Tide love to play at and the ability of the Tar Heels to thrive in an open-court environment, we could be looking at one of the highest-scoring games of the tournament Thursday.
Alabama has scored at least 90 points in eight games since the start of February. It has allowed at least 88 nine times in the same span. Don’t expect Alabama coach Nate Oats to go conservative now that the stakes of the tournament have gotten higher. Just sit back and watch the wildness unfold.
Iowa State will clamp down on Illinois.
Illinois’ offense has been one of the best in the nation for the better part of two months, and senior guard Terrence Shannon maybe the top scorer in this year’s tournament. Shannon has scored 56 points through two games, lifting his season average to 23.3 points per game.
But the Illini will run into a wall against the Cyclones, who head into Thursday ranked fourth nationally in scoring defense (61.3 points per game), 12th in opposing field goal percentage (40.2%) and second in forced turnovers (17.3 per game).
Another smothering defensive performance could make ISU a trendy pick to knock off UConn and reach the Final Four for the first time since 1944.
Tennessee moves one step closer to the Final Four.
Yes, we know about the Volunteers and their confounding NCAA Tournament woes, especially recently with Rick Barnes.
Heck, they could have been sent home in the second round against Texas. But there might be a silver lining given how poorly Tennessee shot against the Longhorns and still managed to survive.
The shooting can’t be that bad Friday against Creighton. Can it? Even if they do struggle offensively, the Volunteers can rely on their defense against the Bluejays and advance.
Someone will record a triple double in this round.
We’ve already had one in the tournament courtesy of Illinois’s Marcus Domask.
They’re a little more difficult to come by in the later rounds as the competition gets tougher, but there are a number of candidates.
The most obvious is Purdue’s Zach Edey, who nearly always has points and rebounds covered. Blocks might be hard to get as his opponents often don’t challenge him enough, but he could also do it with assists as his passing out of the post is a somewhat underappreciated aspect of his game.
Marquette’s Tyler Kolek is another possibility, likely to have points and assists covered but probably in need of a few fortuitous bounces to get the required 10 boards. Do-everything guys like UConn’s Tristen Newton or Iowa State’s Tamin Lipsey could also pull it off.